Welcome to the #WeeklyWonk. This is my weekly blog about statistics, registration data, and election law on my website, dustinczarny.com. This is a rebrand of my #wonkywednesday and #sundaythoughts columns I have been writing since 2020. In merging these two side projects together I am hoping to be a little more regular in my production. I have also not tied myself to a particular day to release these columns, hoping to release them weekly on the weekend. This way I can have more time to gather the statistics and resources that I want to devote to these articles. This week I examine The Town of Manlius.

The Town of Manlius has one race up this year, a single Town board member seat. Normally towns elect their local offices on odd numbered years. However last year then Town Board member John Deer won an election to become Town Supervisor. This meant he had to vacate his seat on the Town Board. That created a to-fill vacancy on the Manlius Town Board. The election this year will be to fill John Deer’s remaining term which ends in 2023. This means whoever wins will have to run for re-election in 2023. The Town Board nominated former Town Board member Alyssa Italiano to serve this year and she is running for election to fill the vacancy.

Manlius is an up-and-coming Democratic Town. Other than Dewitt and Syracuse it is the third most Democratic town in Onondaga County. The Town Supervisor, all six Town Board Members, and one of the 2 Town Justices are all represented by Democrats. Manlius has an ascendent Democratic Plurality. Democrats account for the plurality of voters at 36%. The GOP is barely in second place with 29% of the vote followed by the non-enrolled also at 29%. For the purpose of regional breakdowns, I will look at the county legislature districts that make up the town of Manlius is carved up into three legislative districts. Eighty-eight percent of the voters reside in OCL 10 which includes the three villages of Minoa, Fayetteville, and Manlius. Eight percent is in OCL 3 which is the Northern most portion of Manlius. Four percent in OCL 12 which southernmost portion of Manlius.

The rise of the Democratic plurality in Manlius can once again be attributed as a reaction to the Trump election in 2016. Since 2009 Democrats have gained 1,900 voters while the GOP has lost 1,362. The non-enrolled have gained 1365 voters and are now four voters behind the GOP. After seeing a major rise during 2016, Democrats overtook the GOP in 2017, which happened to be the first year Democrats won a Town Board office. Since then, Democrats have won every competitive town wide seat in both 2019 & 2021.

Despite being broken up into three legislative districts, proportionally they are similar. The main difference is size with OCL 10 dwarfing both OCL 3 & 12. The main district, OCL 10, has a large Democratic lead over the GOP. OCL 3, the northern portion, is more of n even split though there are more non-enrolled than GOP in it. OCL 12 may be the most “conservative” of the three districts with GOP close to the Dems though also the non-enrolled outnumbers the GOP there as well.

In the top five comparative races we see solid Democratic performance to go along with the registration. All of the races the Democrat won but they are often closer when you look at the local races. President Biden dominated Manlius winning by 29.38% points in 2020. Dana Balter did win Manlius in 2018 (+5.78%) and 2020 (+0.44%). Her underperformance in 2020 could be chalked up to the 4.14% of votes on the WFP line for Steve Williams. Governor Cuomo won Manlius by +5.94% which is a solid performance for him upstate. There best local race to compare to was last year’s Supervisor race which was an open seat with a one-to-one matchup similar to the Town Board race this year. John Deer won the Manlius supervisor race by +3.81 points in 2021.

Alyssa Italiano is running on the Democratic and Working Families line for Town Board in 2022. She is running against David Barnwell who will appear on the GOP and Conservative line.

That does it for this bonus edition of the #WeeklyWonk. Next week I will attempt to do two #weeklyWonks again. The Towns of Onondaga (w2ednesday), and Town of Pompey (Sunday) are on deck for the last investigations before the General Election. Check back each week & subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and elections updates.

Welcome to the #WeeklyWonk. This is my weekly blog about statistics, registration data, and election law on my website, dustinczarny.com. This is a rebrand of my #wonkywednesday and #sundaythoughts columns I have been writing since 2020. In merging these two side projects together I am hoping to be a little more regular in my production. I have also not tied myself to a particular day to release these columns, hoping to release them weekly on the weekend. This way I can have more time to gather the statistics and resources that I want to devote to these articles. This week I examine The Town of Dewitt.

The Town of Dewitt has one race up this year, a single Town board member seat.  Normally towns elect their local offices on odd numbered years.  However last year then Town Board member Sam Young won an election to become Town Judge.  This meant he had to vacate his seat on the Town Board.  That created a to-fill vacancy on the Dewitt Town Board.  The election this year will be to fill Sam Young’s remaining term which ends in 2023.  This means whoever wins will have to run for re-election in 2023.  The Town Board nominated former Town Board member Jack Dooling to serve this year and he is running for election to fill the vacancy.

Outside of the City of Syracuse, Dewitt is the most reliable political subdivision.  The Town Supervisor, Town Clerk, all six Town Board Members, and one of the 2 Town Justices are all represented by Democrats.  When looking at the Town Makeup we can see why.  Democrats account for the plurality of voters at 41%.  Non-Enrolled voters, like Syracuse, ranks second at 29%.  The GOP is at just 25% of the enrollment.  For the purpose of regional breakdowns I will look at the county legislature districts that make up the town.  Dewitt is carved up into 4 county legislative districts.  50% of the voters reside in OCL 7 which includes East Syracuse, 28% is in OCL 12 which is the Jamesville Portion of Dewitt, 18% in OCL 17 which borders the southeastern corner of Syracuse, and a small 4% is in OCL 5 which is the Northwest corner of Dewitt.

Dewitt has had a rapid rise to becoming a solidly Democratic town.  In 2009, though Democrats had a plurality, this disparity between Democrats and GOP was just 550 votes.  Since 2009 Democrats have gained 1,220 voters while the GOP has lost 1,022 voters.  The Non-enrolled has gained 1,001 voters during that time as well.  In 2019 the non-enrolled overtook the GOP.  When this happens it typically means the party falling below the non-enrolled line is not competitive.  Since 2019 the only non-Democrat who has won Town office is David Gideon for a republican Town Justice in 2020 and Rocco Conte a registered Conservative who is the Highway Superintendent.  Both of whom are long term incumbents.

Dewitt is the only town in Onondaga County with 4 legislative zones.  This is despite their relatively small population.  The only legislative portion that has a GOP plurality is OCL5 which is paired with parts of Cicero and Salina in the lobster formation in the old maps.  OCL 7 is the largest portion and most Democratic as it encompasses East Syracuse as well as portions of the North side and southeast side of Syracuse.  OCL 17 is also a very Democratic district as it pairs the immediate southeastern suburbs in Dewitt with the 17^th Ward in Syracuse.  Even the Jamesville portion of Dewitt represented in OCL 12 has a Democratic lean, though that portion is washed out in OCL 12 by the GOP southeastern towns.

In the top 5 comparative races we see dominant Democratic performance to go along with the registration.  All of the races the Democrat won by double digits and with over 50% of the vote. Dana Balter won Dewitt twice, in 2018 (+14.03%) & 2020 (+10.67%).  She did better in 2018 as there was a significant 3^rd party vote in 2020 splitting off Democratic votes.  Governor Cuomo won the town of Dewitt by 14.88% in 2018.  President Biden dominated Dewitt winning by 31.75% points in 2020.  The best equivalent one on one race in Dewitt in recent memory is the Town Justice race in 2021.  The Democrat Sam Young won by 16.14% in a year where Democrats did not do well in Onondaga County. 

Jack Dooling will appear on the Democratic line for Town Board in 2022.  He is running against Jerry Nave, Jr. on the GOP line.  There are no minor party endorsements in this race. 

That does it for this bonus edition of the #WeeklyWonk.  This weekend I will look at the other Democratic town in Onondaga County, the Town of Manlius. I will then look at the towns of Onondaga & Pompey next week. Check back each week & subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and elections updates.

Welcome to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly blog about statistics, registration data, and election law on my website, dustinczarny.com. This is a rebrand of my #wonkywednesday and #sundaythoughts columns I have been writing since 2020. In merging these two side projects together I am hoping to be a little more regular in my production. I have also not tied myself to a particular day to release these columns, hoping to release them weekly on the weekend. This way I can have more time to gather the statistics and resources that I want to devote to these articles. This week I examine New York Senate District #50.

Redistricting brought a great deal of change to the New York Senate districts. Senator Mannion’s #SD50 district, like May’s #SD48. The old #SD50 nearly encircled the City of Syracuse starting in the towns of Dewitt and Manlius and grabbing all of the Western Half of Onondaga with a few towns in Cayuga and just parts of the City of Auburn and Syracuse. The new #SD50 is a radically different district. It did keep the towns Clay, Dewitt, Geddes, & Manlius in Onondaga County and added Salina & Cicero. It lost all of the rest of Onondaga County and Cayuga county areas. The Special Master decided to stretch this district north and pick up the entire southern half of the county of Oswego including the cities of Oswego and Fulton.

The redistricting created one of the most competitive Senate districts in the state. Republicans have a slight edge in the district with 33% of the enrollment followed closely by Democrats with 32% of the district.  The Non-enrolled are a close third with 28% of the vote setting up one of the more closely divided districts in the Senate. This seat is divided into two counties, but not equally. Onondaga dominates the district with 74% of the registered voters, but Oswego at 26% can still have sway in the district.

Redistricting drastically altered not only the regional makeup of the district, but the partisan lean as well. IF we look at the old #SD50 it was a district that started with a decided GOP lean in 2012 for incumbent John DeFrancisco. However, since then Democrats not only grew but in 2018 surpassing the GOP which led to the election of John Mannion in 2020. However, with the stroke of a pane the Special Master totally reversed and reset the partisan makeup of the district. From 2012 to 2021 Democrats gained 9,784 voters while the GOP lost 1,647 voters, and the non-enrolled gained 9,749 voters. As discussed before all upstate districts needed to ad population as they were artificially kept low to try and cement GOP rule. The Special Master added 8,334 GOP voters to the district while only adding 3,688 N/E and just 358 Democratic voters. An argument can be made this was the most dramatic change in all Senate districts in New York.

There are just two distinct areas in this district, but they are wildly different. The Onondaga Portion of the district has a decided Democratic edge, in fact the non-enrolled voters are remarkably close to overtaking the GOP. The opposite is true in the Oswego portion as the GOP dominates and the non-enrolled threaten to overtake the Democrats. If past trends continue the Onondaga portion will get bluer over the ten years and Oswego will get more red. However, since Onondaga is the substantial portion of the district, we could see Democratic registration rise over the life of the district as the last version of this district did.

It is even harder to get comparative races for this district then #SD48. Instead of doing five comparative races I have had to pare down to four. I am not studying the 2020 congressional race in the district since the Oswego portion of the district was made up of two different congressional races and the comparison would be so different as not to have any weight. Like #SD48, I throw in the results from the last two races John Mannion was in. He lost 2018 by 1.9 points and won in 2020 by 4.96 points. Remember these results are under the old district lines. If the 2020 election were run under the new lines, Joe Biden would have won the district by 7.20 points. Likewise, if the 2018 Governor’s race were run under the new lines Molinaro would have won the new district by 5.78 points.

If we want to extrapolate how Mannion might perform in the new district we can look at the differences in the new and old districts in the Presidential and Governor’s race. In 2020 in the old district, according to New York Redistricting and You, Biden won the district by 13.2 points, six points more than the new district. Mannion won the old district by 4.96 points indicating a tighter race than 2020. According to the New York State Board of Elections Molinaro won the old #SD50 by 1.86 points which was similar the number Mannion lost by (1.9%). However, in 2018 Mannion was a first-time candidate against the well-known Onondaga County Comptroller Robert Antonacci. Mannion is an incumbent with 6 years of running in the Onondaga County portion of the district. Bottomline, all indications are this is a winnable seat for the Democratic incumbent but will be a tight race.

Senator John Mannion (D) is running for re-election in #SD48. He will appear on the Democratic and Working Families Party Line. He has served in the NY State Senate since 2020. He is running against Rebecca Shiroff (R) who appears on the Republican and Conservative line. Shiroff lost a race for Manlius Town Councilor in 2021 and was the campaign manager for Angi Renna who lost to John Mannion in 2020. Renna has gone on to join the Trump-esque “NY Citizens Audit” and become one of New York’s most public election deniers.

That does it for this edition of the #weeklyWonk. Next week I look at doing the towns of Onondaga that are having races this year. I will start off with the towns of Dewitt and Manlius next week. I will then look at Onondaga, & Pompey the next week. Check back each week & subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and elections updates.