Welcome to the #weeklywonk.  This is my weekly blog about statistics, registration data, and election law on my website, dustinczarny.com.  This is a rebrand of my #wonkywednesday and #sundaythoughts columns I have been writing since 2020.  In merging these two side projects together I am hoping to be a little more regular in my production.  I have also not tied myself to a particular day to release these columns, hoping to release them weekly on the weekend, so I can have more time to gather the statistics and resources that I want to devote to these articles.  This week I will finish my look back at the June 2022 primary looking at overall turnout.

Primaries by their very nature are low turnout events, and the June 2022 primary was no different.  On the ballot in Onondaga County there was a Democratic and republican primary for Governor and Democratic primary for Lt. Governor.  Other areas of the state had Assembly and local office primaries, but we did not in Onondaga County.  We had 196,903 voters eligible to vote in the June Primary.  28,743 voters showed up to the polls for a turnout percentage of 14.60%.  As we explored in the last three updates, 81% voted on Election Day, 9% voted Early & Absentee, and an additional 1% voted via Affidavit Ballot.  In the overall populace of the Primary Democrats made up 55% of the raw vote total and GOP made up 45%.  The turnout percentages though were virtually tied with the GOP getting 14.82% turnout and Democrats getting 14.44%.

It is actually rare that a primary election has both GOP and Democratic choices on the ballot at the same time.  Since 2009 we have had 16 different primary elections, including last June.  Only 5 of those primaries were bi-partisan primaries with both major parties having choices.  Only 2 primaries (2012 Presidential & Federal) were primary elections with only GOP choices.  9 primaries have occurred with only Democratic choices and no GOP choices.  Only one year where there no primary election, that was 2011.  It should be noted in August we will once again have both GOP and Democratic choices for Congress.  This will make the third primary in a row where there is competition on both sides and possibly a harbinger of more primaries in the future.

Turnout rates for primary fluctuate based on the number of races on the ballot in non-presidential years.  The 2020 Presidential primary stands out as the big daddy of all recent primaries.  Turnout soared in those primaries because New York was uniquely situated as the do or die states for Trump and Clinton as wins in New York would all but cement their general election nominations.  It was also alone in the primary calendar allowing all Presidential campaigns to focus solely on the state.  The 2020 combined Presidential primary for Democrats is next.  This is a unique primary where the Presidential and congressional and local races were all combined into one primary.  The various competitive offices drove turnout.  Turnout in non-presidential primaries tend to be driven by number of candidates on the ballot.  Another example of that is in 2018 the later local primary with Governor and local offices had higher turnout that the 2018 Federal primaries with only Congress on the ballot.  Of the 5 primaries with both Democrats and GOP on the ballot the GOP had higher turnout in 2 primaries (2010 & 2022 June) and Democrats had higher in 3 primaries (2009,2016 Pres,2021).  Most of the time the differences are negligible in the ratio of turnout, though that is notably different than General Elections where Democrats usually trail in turnout rates.

Another interesting difference in primaries as opposed to general elections is the regional turnout rates.  In General elections the City of Syracuse tends to trail both the suburbs and overall turnout.  In Primary elections that is not always the case.  The City of Syracuse is a Democratically held city and in recent years the primary tends to be the election for the city offices.  This has led the city to participate at a higher rate in their primaries.  We have had 5 City only primaries of the 16 primaries since 2009 (2009, 2013, 2015, 2017, & 2019).  Syracuse has led the turnout in in 8 different years (2010, 2012 Pres, 2012 Fed, 2014 Local, 2016 Fed, 2018 Fed, 2018 Local, 2021 Local).  The three years where the primaries acted more like the general where Presidential Primaries in 2016 & 2020 and this last June 2022 primary.  In all three of these primaries, we had county wide competitive primaries and turnout among suburban voters increased.  City voters are used to primaries and usually have more races to choose from and that in my opinion is why on average they are more likely to show up for a primary than suburbanites. 

This wraps up my four-week look back at the June Primary.  In September after the certification of the August Primary I will do a similar breakdown of that election. It will be interesting to look at the turnout difference between June and August.  For years New York had bifurcated primaries with Federal primaries in June and local ones in September.  This was because New York was under a court order to move their local primary earlier or have two different primaries to allow the federal primary to comply with the MOVE act.  Democrats in the Assembly wanted a single June primary, and the GOP in the Senate wanted an August Primary.  The Court eventually moved federal elections to June and New York had two primaries until Democrats took over the State Legislature in 2019.  It should be noted that we have had only two normal political calendars 2019 & 2021.  Covid combined the Presidential primary in June of 2020 and Redistricting once again split the primaries in June and August of 2022. This real-life experiment will give us some insight on that past debate.

Next week I will once again return to looking at some of the races on the ballot for the General election resuming my look at the Assembly races with the 128^th Assembly District.  I plan to look at each race on the General election ballot leading up to November.  Remember to subscribe to dustinczarny.com to get all election news and content updates.

Welcome back to #wonkywednesday. Each week I take a deep dive into the registration and election data that makes up our home, Onondaga County. This week I continue my 4-week look back at the June 28, 2022, primary. This year we have two primaries because of the disastrous redistricting process in New York. On August 23^rd, 2022, we will have the primaries for Congress and NY Senate. However, we just certified the June primary where Onondaga County held Democratic and Republican primaries for Governor, a Democratic primary for Lt. Governor, and members of the Pompey Town GOP Committee. In other parts of New York Assembly primaries happened as well, but we had none in Onondaga County. This week I will examine Absentee & Election Day Balloting during the June 2022 Primary.

Election Day Balloting is still by far the most popular form of balloting. In the June 2022 primary it accounted for 81% of the ballots cast in the primary, while Early Voting was 9% and Absentee voting also 9%. We had two hundred Affidavit ballots, some were cast on Early Voting, some on Election Day but all were counted after Election Day, so we keep that count separate. Unlike Absentee and Early Voting, the use of Election Day is more split with the parties. Democrats made up 55% of the Election Day ballots while the GOP made up 45% of the ballots.

Early Voting for primaries did not start until the June combined Presidential and local primaries in 2020. Of course, the COVID crisis was in full swing at that point as well. The June 2022 primary not only had more Election Day voters then the previous two it was also the highest percentage of the last two years. This is mainly due to the drop in absentee voting as the COVID crisis wanes. Early Voting percentages have grown the last three years, but Election Day percentage for a primary was at an all-time high this year as fears over virus contraction saw voters abandon absentees and either vote Early or more often on Election Day.

We deployed 148 Polling Places for the June primary. Our top ten polling places is a list of the usual suspects based on voter enrollment. Some surprises are the N. Syracuse Community Center which saw a surge in activity because a nearby polling center (Bellewood Baptist Church) was merged into it for the June primary due to a scheduling issue. Gillette Road Middle School took on all of the election Districts of the old Believer’s chapel polling place that no longer wished to be a polling place after last year. The highest city site is Spiritual Renewal on the east side. We made some efforts to spread out the population of the American Valley Legon and Bellevue Heights Church in the city to reduce lines at these sites and that resulted in them dropping out of the top ten of polling sites.

In looking at voters per hours we are seeing a definitive pattern emerge for the last three primaries. No matter the size of Election Day turnout Primary day starts off light in the norming and steadily builds throughout the day. This reaches a crescendo of activity in the 5pm hour. Voter activity drops but stays strong comparatively right until 9pm. The few stragglers you see after9pm are voters who were in line before 9pm and polls closing.

Next week I will finish my look back at the June primary with a final wrap up on overall turnout. Later in August the #wonkywendesday series will be renamed the #WeeklyWonk and releasing on the weekends. This will allow me more time to get data and branch out with some editorial content on election reform. So, stay tuned for future articles.