Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County.  I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere.  This week I investigate the Town of Marcellus.

The Town of Marcellus sits in the Southwest portion of Onondaga County.  The village of Marcellus sits in the northern part of the town surrounded by mostly farmland through the rest of the town.  Marcellus has generally been a GOP dominated town.  Recently though some Democrats have been able to win inside Town wide office.

Marcellus experienced the traditional vote population growth that a Presidential year will bring.  The village of Marcellus certainly has a more suburban feel then the rest of the town.  The southwest corner of the county of Onondaga has not seen the dramatic population growth that the northern and Eastern towns has seen.  This voter growth is probably more a sign of a more engaged populace rather than sign of overall population growth.

The current registration of the Town of Marcellus certainly shows a GOP dominated town.  Republicans make up 36% of the town with Democrats at 28% just barely outnumbers Non-enrolled (BLK) voters at 27%.  The town of Marcellus is one of the few towns that is not broken up by a county legislative district as the entire town is part of the 6^th OCL seat represented by Julie Abbot-Keenan.  It does have 6 election districts which are somewhat similar in size that divides the town.

Since 2009 the GOP has been stagnate in the Town of Marcellus.  While continuing to dominate the registration it has seen a longer decline with a slight uptick during the Presidential Election of 2020.  Democrats on the other hand have seen some real growth during that time.  At one-point non-enrolled voters outnumbered Democrats but that started to reverse in 2016. Democratic enrollment has gained steadily each year since 2016 and now surpassed the Non-enrolled population. The Non-enrolled population is gaining as well though, just not as high of a rate.

Marcellus’s six election districts show a more nuanced breakdown then the overall voter registration may tell.  The village of Marcellus are represented by Eds 3 & 4.  Democrats outnumber GOP enrollments in these districts. The Village of Marcellus is roughly a little more than ¼ of the total population of the town.  The other 4 Election Districts represents the large rural areas of the town.  The GOP domination in those election districts usually gives them an edge in electoral contests.  That may be changing though.

The significant six races we are looking at to get a glimpse of how a town reacts electorally.  In 2019 to no surprise the GOP swept the three races with the County Executive race and County Clerk race giving the GOP candidates a healthy edge.  Masterpole’s ability to eat into those margins in his race for comptroller certainly helped in his razor close win.  2020 though Marcellus acted in an interesting way.  Certainly, the margin in the congressional race was expected with Katko pummeling Balter.  We see though John Mannion pulling slightly ahead of Renna in the race for SD 50 and Joe Biden won by over 8 points.  This may signal a start of Marcellus becoming more competitive for Democrats, or a onetime reaction to Donald Trump and a Trumpian candidate in Angie Renna.

The Town of Marcellus Democrats have chosen to nominate candidates by caucus in 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic making petitioning problematic. Marcellus Supervisor and two Town Councilor positions are up.  Tammy Sayre has already announced she is running for re-election for Town Council and is the lone Democrat that has been elected town wide   If you wish to get involved with the Marcellus Democratic Committee contact chair Nancy Bunn at nbunn@twcny.rr.com and the Marcellus Democratic Committee can be found on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/MarcellusDemocraticCommittee

Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County.  I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere.  This week I investigate the Town of Manlius..

The Town of Manlius sits on the Eastern border of Onondaga County.  This is one of the largest towns in Onondaga County, second only to Clay.  There are three villages in this town, Fayetteville, Manlius, and Minoa.  The three villages along with the numerous housing developments give this town a definitive suburban feel.  Some of the county’s most affluent citizenry live here and for generations this has been known as a GOP dominated town…till recently that is.

Manlius has seen a large growth in registered voters over the last few years as has Onondaga County as a whole.  The ample housing and well-regarded school district has garnered the attention of new residents as well as those moving out of the City of Syracuse.  This along with growing rental communities has transformed this bright red town to not just purple but a growing shade of blue.

It certainly will surprise many long time Onondaga County political activists to learn that Democrats don’t just outnumber the GOP, they have now come to dominate with a 7% registration plurality.  The town itself is split up into three different legislative districts all held by Republicans.  OCL 10 takes up most of the center of town and is currently an open seat with longtime legislator Kevin Holmquist retiring.  OCL 3 is the northern part of Manlius and folds into Cicero represented by Tim Burtis.  Finally, one solitary ED on the southern part of town is in OCL 12 occupied by Dave Knapp.

Since 2009 the GOP has been in a steady decline in the Town of Manlius.  Older voters either moving away or passing on have made way to a bumper crop of new residents that have a farther left ideology.  The Democrats remarkable gains since 2016 in our county can be seen in the Manlius electorate.  Unlike some other towns the GOP has not matched that gain and has continued to decline since 2016 as well.  In fact the non-enrolled voter segment threatens to soon overtake GOP registration if trends continue.  It’s obvious that newer residents are Democratic, and many GOP residents are shedding their party label and becoming non-enrolled.

Manlius will likely be a major battleground in the fight for control of the Onondaga County legislature.  OCL 10 has been nail bitingly close the last two elections and one can see why.  The Democratic enrollment has skyrocketed.  With it now being an open seat, it is seen as one of the best shots for Democrats to flip a GOP controlled seat.  This is one of only two seats that is wholly contained inside a town.  Manlius is so large it would be impossible for it to be represented by just one legislator, however the redistricting commission in 2011 split the remaining segments into two different county legislative seats.  In both cases the segments of Manlius that were sent to other districts were paired with much more GOP leaning areas of the county.

It is not just in registration that Democrats have seen gains in the Town of Manlius, but also in performance.  In our significant six races the Manlius has been one of the best performing towns outside of Dewitt.  In 2019 the County Executive and County Clerk races race were awfully close, and Marty Masterpole’s performance in Manlius is one of the main reasons he defeated Matt Beadnell.  In 2019 the Town board was swept by Democrats flipping a 5-1 GOP majority to 5-1 Democratic majority.  In 2020 Democratic dominance continued.  Manlius was one of two towns Dana Balter won, and John Mannion’s dominance in Manlius propelled the 50th Senate seat into Democratic hands for the first time ever.  Finally, Joe Biden won over 60% of the vote, one of the best showing in Onondaga County.

The Town of Manlius Democrats have already nominated candidates as they designate candidates by petition.  Current Town Board member John Deer is running for Supervisor in an open seat as the current supervisor has decided not to seek re-election.  Katelyn Kriesel and Sara Bollinger are running for re-election to the Town Board and newcomer William Nicholson is running for the third seat.  David Rothchild is running for Town Judge which is also an open seat.  If you wish to get involved with the Manlius Democratic Committee contact chair Prerna Deer at  prerna.deer@gmail.com and the Manlius Democratic Committee can be found on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/ManliusDems

Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of our home, Onondaga County.  I hope by looking into this data we can glean that this everchanging county is not monolithic as once thought and competition for Democrats, and all registrations, can be found everywhere.  This week I look into the Town of Lysander.

Lysander sits in the Northwest corner of our county and is one of the larger towns.  The Village of Baldwinsville straddles its border with Van Buren, one of two such villages that cross town lines in our county.  Lysander is the only large town that sits wholly in a county legislative district (1).  Since it is not split by a ward system either ad has 18 election districts it is hard to break up into pieces and has to be looked at as a whole.

Like many areas of Onondaga County we have seen an increase in registered voters in this town over the last decade.  A steady stream of registration mirrors the population shifts that have grown the school district as well.  The town itself is a mix of suburban neighborhoods and rural agrarian sections and it will take the upcoming census to see if this is a true trend in higher population or just a normal growth in registrations we see in Presidential cycles.

Lysander is often seen as the most republican town.  While Cicero is larger in overall population, Lysander has a more dominant registration in terms of percentage.  This combined with a decent Conservative population, Lysander on its face may not give much hope for Democrats.  That may be changing though.

It certainly was true in the past that the GOP dominated this town population wise.  However over the last 10 years Democratic registration has grown at a 3:1 pace over GOP registration closing the gap to just half of what it once was.  We see a similar growth in non-enrolled registration.  It is important to note that there seems to be a sharper decrease in GOP population since October of last year.  Whether that is a result of a national trend in GOP registration drops since the January 6th insurrection or normal fluctuations is hard to say at this juncture.  

Republicans have dominated our significant six comparative races we have looked at.  In n2019 they swept the three races there handily.  This is one of the few spots where County Executive Ryan McMahon did worse than County Clerk Lisa Dell, but that can be chalked up to homecourt advantage since Lisa Dell was the Town Clerk for a long time.  In 2020 the GOP won congress and the NYS Senate race there handily as well.  There is one glimmer of hope.  President Biden won the Town of Lysander, despite the enrollment disadvantage.  This indicates a segment of infrequent non0enrolled voters who will reject more conservative Trumpian candidates when offered a real opportunity.

In the recent past the Democrats through a coalition of independents and former GOP members actually won control of the Lysander Town Board and Supervisor.  The hope for Democrats to win in Lysander does seem to rest on that model.  In Lysander this year Town Clerk, Town Justice, two Town Councilors, and Highway Superintendent are on the ballot.  Democrats hold their nominations by caucus.  If you are interested in getting involved contact Lysander chair Justin Neal at justinkn@hotmail.com and the Lysander Democratic Committee can be found at https://www.facebook.com/LysanderDems