Welcome back to Wonky Wednesday.  Every week I take a look at the election and registration data that makes up the electoral landscape of Onondaga County.  I am currently working my way through the 19 Towns of Onondaga County having already did the City of Syracuse.  After that we will look at all 17 County Legislature races.  Up this week is the Town of Fabius.

The Town of Fabius is the tiniest town in terms of registered voters in Onondaga County.  How small is it?  Not only is it the smallest of the 19 Towns in Onondaga County but 18 of the 19 individual wards in the City of Syracuse also outnumber Fabius (15th Ward is the exception).  It is even smaller than 9 of the 15 villages in Onondaga County. While there has been some growth in recent years it is typical of all sub-divisions in Onondaga County.

The GOP dominates the Town of Fabius with a large plurality of the registered voters.  The Democrats barely outnumber the non-enrolled in this rural town.  This town is wholly inside the 12th legislative district but is split in two by two election districts that splits the town in two equally populous halves.  

The dominance of the GOP in this town is generational and it is reflected in the enrollment data going back to 2009.  In the rise of Democrats in Onondaga county that we saw in 2016 we have seen a slight increase in Democratic population here as well.  This though has barely kept up with the rise in GOP enrollment.  Fabius is also one of the few towns that have gotten more Republican since the election, though data is limited.  

In the two election districts in Fabius the GOP is almost equally as dominant.  ED 1 contains the village of Fabius and villages tend to be more Democratic.  Here it seems it is resulting in more non-enrolled but not a substantial portion of Democrats.  The village of Fabius is one of the few villages not solely inside of an election district and that may be changed next year.  However there is also talk of dissolving this village as well.

As you might imagine the Town of Fabius performs poorly with our significant six races.  In the 2019 low turnout models the county wide GOP candidates had dominant performances in the usual order of County Exec, County Clerk, and County Comptroller.  Even in the 2020 high turnout models Republicans had dominant performances.  This is one of the few towns where Biden did not win in 2020 showing how strong the GOP brand is in this town.

For Democrats to win in this area a candidate will have to focus on winning over non-enrolled as well as a significant portion of GOP.  It is not impossible but a campaign around local issues will need to be at the forefront.  IN 2021 the Town Supervisor, Clerk, Highway Superintendent, Justice, and two of the Town Councilors are on the ballot.  Democrats nominate by caucus in the Town of Fabius which can be scheduled anytime between now and mid-July.  If you are interested in helping out contact Fabius Democratic Town Chair Markey Dormer at mbdormer@gmail.com

Welcome to Wonky Wednesday.  Each week I dive into the registration and election data that makes up the electoral landscape of Onondaga County.  Today I take a look at the Town of Elbridge.  This is the first small rural town I have looked in this series.  It sits in the west portion of Onondaga County.  Despite being a mostly urban town, it contains two villages, Jordan and Elbridge.  It should be noted that the village of Elbridge just moved their elections to the fall November calendar.  Both villages elect their candidates traditionally without party activity.

Elbridge has seen a decent jump in voter registration for the Presidential year.  Unlike other towns this was not a result of a four year build since 2016 but a one year jump.  While we will have to wait for census data to be sure, this is most likely a jump in presidential voters rather then a significant population shift.

The Town of Elbridge is a reliably Republican town.  In fact the Democratic party didn’t even have committee members until recently.  While there have been Democrats on the party line in the past, it was mostly a result of disaffected Republicans using the Democrat line.  Elbridge is not split by legislative districts, it wholly resides in OCL 13.  Further their town elects all candidates town wide.  However it does have 5 nearly equal in size (in terms of registered voters) election districts we can look at.

Elbridge is one of the few towns in Onondaga County that the GOP is holding steady in.  Since 2009 the GOP advantage has stayed strong in this town.  Though the Democrats did see some gains since 2016, the GOP has matched or exceeded them.  The Non-enrolled voter has actually at times surpassed the Democratic enrollment numbers.  This happened again in 2020 which seems to point to the new registrations being more of a mix of GOP presidential only voters as well as non-enrolled swing voters.

None of the election districts in Elbridge have a more Democratic bend then the others.  Even the villages of Jordan (ED 2) and Elbridge (ED 5) are solidly GOP districts though Democrats do outnumber Non-enrolled in those more urban settings.  EDs 1, 3, and 5 are the more rural portions of the town and are also in more GOP control with non-enrolled voters eclipsing GOP.

With the solid GOP enrollment numbers it is not surprising that the “significant six” races we are looking at all are overwhelming Republican results.  It is one of only 5 towns that Biden lost in Onondaga County, as well as every other race.  There is a weird anomaly in this town, its one of the only ones where County Executive Ryan McMahon performed worse then Lisa Dell and Matt Beadnell in 2019.  It could be an anomaly but it could also indicate a more hardcore Trump vote here that rejects more mainline GOP candidates.

The key to any success Democrats may have in Elbridge will be to forge political alliances with more conservative non-enrolled members and rally around local governance issues.  In 2021 the Supervisor, Clerk, Highway Superintendent, and 2 Town Councilors are up for election.  A new Elbridge Democratic Committee is being formed but it is in its infancy.  Anyone wanting to get involved should contact OCDC Town Chair Denise Baker at  deenisebaker@aol.com.