“The appeals process could take up to a year and there are several moving parts that make replacing — or keeping — Billue difficult, said Onondaga County Elections Commissioner Dustin Czarny.
Normally, Syracuse citizens would vote onan open seat during the November general election. Beginning Feb. 24, candidates can begin petitioning to be put on the ballot, Czarny said. Petitioners need to get 1,000 signatures by April 2.
But this could be upended by the appeals process.
Billue could ask Rosa or a state Supreme Court Judgeto reinstate her temporarily while her appeal plays out. Bullock said she will likely take this action.
If Billue is reinstated, the political parties can nominate a candidate beginning March 26. However if Rosa has not made a decision by Aug. 3 and Billue is still sitting temporarily, the school board election for her seatwill be pushed back to the 2027 general election, according to Czarny.”
Onondaga County Democratic Elections Commissioner Dustin Czarny said the town can appoint someone to fill the seat temporarily. An election would then be held in November to fill his seat for four-year term that would start in January 2027.
I appeared on WCNY’s the Capitol Pressroom to talk about Village elections and the problems with South Blooming Grove this last year. I outlined what the issues were and how we can run Village elections better by using the County Board of elections to administer it.
Subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election news updates
Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly article on election data that I post on my website, dustinczarny.com. Each week I dive into electoral and registration data into different political subdivisions in Onondaga County and New York State. This week I am finishing my four parts look at Onondaga County heading into 2026. You can find part 1 Onondaga County Overall, Part 2 Onondaga County Suburbs, and Part 3 City of Syracuse at the Weekly Wonk section of my website (https://dustinczarny.com/weekly-wonk/). This week is my final edition of this segment, part 4, The Onondaga County Legislative Districts 2026.
For the first time in 50 years the Democrats took control of the Onondaga County legislature following the 2025 elections. At the end of 2024 Republicans held an 11-6 majority which grew to 12-5 when Chris Ryan assumed his NYS Senate Seat and County Executive Ryan McMahon appointed a GOP representative to the seat. This proved to be a one-year rental as OCL 8 is an overwhelmingly Democratic district and Chad Ryan, cousin to Chris Ryan, won a primary and the General election handy. His win along with four other seats that flipped to the Democrats gave Democrats their 10-7 majority. The Democrats retained their seats in OCL districts 7, 9, 15, 16, and 17, with the GOP contesting only one of them. The Democrats won seats in OCL 4, 5, 6, 8, and 10, with every seat contested. THE GOP held onto OCL 1, 2, 3, 11, 12, 13 & 14 and the Democrats did not field candidates in any of those seats in 2025.
The heat map shows the registration data for all the Onondaga County legislative district. This map shows the difference between the Democratic registration percentage and Republican registration percentage. Here we see the outcome of the years of gerrymandering and packing and cracking of districts in our county. However, it is also a result of the polarization of our country. The six dark blue districts (Dem +20%, OCL 7,8,9,15,16, & 17) pack into the highly dense Democratic district in Syracuse and parts of Dewitt and Geddes. However, the Democratic conversion in the suburbs have brough four districts into a lean Democratic (+5-9%, OCL 2,4,5,10). OCL 14 is the only borderline Democratic district (Dem +0-4%). There are four borderline GOP districts (rep 0-4% OCL 6, 11, 12, 13) that use the more rural parts of our county to give these districts a negative partisan lean. OCL 1 and 3, located in the northern corners of our county, are among the largest geographic regions that regularly lean Republican, with a GOP advantage of 5-9%.
Just looking at Democrat vs Republican does not give the whole story of the county. This chart aligns the Conservative members with the GOP and Working Families with the Democrat. Since conservatives outnumber the WFP five to one, most districts have shifted to the right. For example, OCL 14 moves to the GOP, and all other districts shift to the right, except for those based solely in cities where WFP and CON are evenly matched. I also noted on this chart there are only two districts where a member represents a district that does not lean their way ideologically. Although OCL 2 leans slightly to the left, the GOP currently represents the area because there has not yet been a strong Democratic candidate. Democrats managed to win OCL 6 after multiple attempts, successfully overturning the seat even though it had a strong ideological leaning. I anticipate that opposing parties will focus on contesting both seats in 2026.
This chart shows the change in majorities since 2011. In 2011 the Onondaga County Legislature following a vote of the voters reduced the 19-member body down to seventeen seats. While redistricting was underway, Ryan McMahon, a young Republican city council member, joined the Onondaga County Redistricting Commission and suggested creating long winding districts that combined city areas with nearby suburbs, resulting in a heavily gerrymandered supermajority. The McMander resulted in a 13-4 supermajority, which enabled McMahon to win election both to a seat he played a role in establishing and to serve as Chair of the legislature. The Republicans maintained a strong majority up to the Trump administration, after which Democratic registration increased in suburban regions. As a result, Democrats captured two seats originally intended for the GOP—one in 2017 and another in 2019. The country took a right wing turn in 2021 and the Flip the Leg” movement failed. In 2023 there was a new map drawn under the direction of GOP appointee Kevin Hulsander. The expedited Hulsmander map removed certain shared districts; subsequently, the Republican Party approved a map that was later determined to be unlawful. The court case continued until late 2025, requiring the GOP legislature to redraw the map once more. Though they only made slight changes, that and Democratic overperformance resulted in the legislature flip last year.
2011 was a pivotal year in the story of the Onondaga County Legislature. Since the McMander in 2011 we had a redistricting process in 2023 (The Hulsmander map) and the court mandated map in 2025. This along with the partisan shift of our county mostly, but not totally, because of Donald Trump has had a dramatic effect on each of the seventeen districts. Fourteen of the seventeen districts have shifted towards the Democrats. Just one, OCL 3, shifted to the GOP’s control after the 2023 Hulsmander moved its district northward into Cicero and away from Manlius. The same map shifted OCL 15 into the city and we saw a substantial change in that district.
2026 is the first time in Onondaga County history that the county legislature elections will run on even year lines. To get an idea on how these districts perform instead of just their registration rates, I compare how these districts voted in both the 2022 Governor Hochul election and the 2024 Presidential election. This gives an idea on why every district can be more competitive for Democrats in 2026. The 2022 Hochul election is one of the most challenging contests Democrats had faced in years. Likewise, the 2024 Presidential election was a downturn from 2020. Since we are comparing percentage victories here, we can get an idea on how these districts may perform next year. This data was hard to put together as both 2022 and 2024 were on two different maps than the lines now, so I had to compile this data at the election district level and realign with the new districts. Under this scenario Hochul carried 11 of 17 districts and Harris carried 15 of 17 districts. Likely the districts will perform this year somewhere between the percentages of these two elections, but local candidates will matter as well as local issues. Still, there is also a possibility that a broad Democratic surge year like 2025 on an even year scale like we saw in 2018 could put every district in play.
Finally, I look at age in Onondaga County during my #weeklywonks this year. When we look at age in the last few #weeklywonks we saw that the younger the age group Democrats did better under 50 and better the younger you went (though it is just as valid an argument it is the GOP losing to the non-enrolled and doing worse rather than Democrats doing better. Democrats also do better in the oldest age group. So, it is not a surprise that the two oldest districts (OCL 6 & 10) and six of the seven youngest districts (OCL 7, 8, 9, 15, 16, 17) belong to the Democrats. The GOP continues to hold power in the new district (OCL 2), largely because no opposition is challenging it. This also shows that the rest of the districts (OCL 1, 3,4,5, 11,12, 13, & 14) are typical swing districts in terms of age.
That is, it is for this week’s edition of the #weeklywonk. This also wraps up my 4-part series on Onondaga County heading into 2026. Starting next week, I will focus on the towns holding elections in an even year for the first time. My next 6-part series will be on the towns that nominate candidates based on Petitions (Elbridge, Manlius, Marcellus, Onondaga, Salina, & Spafford). There are seven towns that do so, but I am skipping Lysander this year because they do not have any offices up. If that changes, I will add it into the mix later. We start with the town of Elbridge next. As always you can subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election updates.
Onondaga County Elections Commissioner Dustin Czarny told syracuse.com that removing an elected official in this capacity is rare.
“Usually vacancies happen when somebody gets a job or we’ve had deaths. This is a weird one,“ Czarny said. ”I don’t remember a removal from a local committee.”
In this week’s episode I try to honor Martin Luther King Jr. and reflect on his role as a voting rights champion. I collected a few of my favorite quotes of his and talk about his work in Selma and the Voting Rights Act of 1965. I think his story of peaceful non violent but confrontational protest is something we can look to today in this tumultuous time. Enjoy.
Every year the Democratic Caucus of the NYS Election Commissioners Association identify a list of legislative and budget priorities to present to our legislative and executive leaders in New York to continuously improve voter experience and election administration. We denote the current bill numbers, legislative status, and whether this is a shared goal of the GOP caucus of NYSECA or the NYS Board of Elections.
Give Boards of Elections the ability to properly serve the voters of New York.
Four-year terms for all boards of elections commissioners. (S2050/A7289) (Bi-partisan support)PASSED SENATE
Minimum staffing requirements set based on voter enrollment for full-time permanent employees for each Board of Election. (S843/A6069)
Require all Commissioners in New York outside of the City of New York to be full time commissioners (S1087/A5056)
Support Mandatory Training and certification for Commissioner and Deputies. (S1035/A1228) (Bi-partisan support) (NYSBOE support)PASSED SENATE
Mandate County nominations for Commissioners occur no later than the party reorganization meeting or October 15th in years where a reorganization meeting does not occur.(Bi-partisan support)
Since 2019, long awaited election reform has changed local Boards of Elections’ responsibilities without making the structural changes needed for accurate implementation that meets the needs of our voters. These proposals will give County Commissioners the ability to strategically plan and bring year-round, full-time management to the Board of Elections in every county. We also support required training and certification for all Election Commissioners and deputies to ensure professional operations of each Board of Elections. We must also ensure proper transitions when new Commissioners are elected, so we are advocating for limiting late calendar nominations that can cause chaos with respect to the political calendar.
Invest in our election system by providing the following funding streams in the New York State Budget.
Aid to localities funding of $35 million for distribution to County Board of Elections of unbudgeted expenses.(Bi-partisan support)
Properly fund the New York State Board of Elections and give the NYSBOE proper authority to promulgate regulations and enforce responsibilities outlined in state law. (NYSBOE support) (Bi-partisan support)
The cost of running elections is mainly the responsibility of county governments. With the added responsibilities that the NYS Legislature has required of Boards of Elections, our staffing needs and equipment purchases continue to rise significantly. Each county has different needs; therefore, we are asking for a annual, dedicated Aid to Localities funding stream, replacing the various postage, equipment, and staffing grants. This is the best way for New York to meet its obligation to help county boards properly operate. We also support the NYS Board of Elections in their budget request to meet the increased regulatory and functionality services they are required to provide.
Provide flexibility for County Board of Election operations.
Allow for flexibility for designating non-enrolled inspectors to serve as Republican or Democratic inspectors. (Bi-partisan support)
Grant county Election Commissioners independence and flexibility with respect to determining hours of operation. (Bi-partisan support)
Altering the highest municipality early voting law to lower the highest city threshold to at least 10,000 voters. (Bi-partisan support)
County Board of Elections need flexibility to meet the modern needs of the electorate. Each individual county has different needs. Allowing the county boards flexibility in designating election inspectors can help in rural and urban communities. Boards of Elections often need to operate at different hours than their county hosts. They also need flexibility in selecting Early Voting sites that are more suitable for their counties.
Reform the Automatic Hand Count to work more efficiently.
Reduce the threshold for triggering recounts in close elections to .25% and allow for alternative scan within the .25-50% range, while also reducing the minimum vote threshold to ten. (Bi-partisan support) (S3290/A1091)
Exempt all party position contests from the manual hand count including judicial delegate and county committee contests. (NYSBOE support) (Bi-partisan support)
Allow candidates with less votes to opt out of a hand count. (Bi-partisan support)
The automatic hand-count has been in place for several election cycles. We have learned that the precinct scanners are accurate. Lowering the threshold for the hand-count will allow the Board of Elections to only focus on the truly close races that have a chance of changing hands. We must also stipulate that the hand-count should only start after initial certification allowing boards to properly prepare and sort ballots for counting. We should exempt party positions from the hand count rule as these elections are routinely close but not close enough to switch winners and draw resources away from publicly held offices. Finally, we can also give candidates with lesser votes the options to bypass the hand count if they don’t wish to participate.
Enhance our Ballot Access laws to provide protections for parties and to give access to candidates.
Extend the General Election Post Primary drop off date until after the certification of the June Primary or last day to caucus for town races. (Bi-partisan support)
Protect Town Caucus from party raiding by requiring party authorization for candidates not enrolled in a party to receive designation.
Allow county parties to have direct ballot access with their nomination process outside of NYC (Bi-partisan support) (S7401/A583)
Encourage legislation denoting that all public offices within the state of New York be referred to in gender neutral terms on Primary and General election ballots. (Bi-partisan support)
Our ballot access laws need modern protections and adjustments to ensure competitive and free elections. Over the last few cycles, we have seen an increase in those wanting to exploit weaknesses in ballot access functions in order to steal party lines, aka party raiding. We urge the legislature to close these loopholes by extending the party change deadline until after the last day to caucus and to protect caucuses from party raiding in the same way we do other ballot access methods. As petitioning has been scheduled to start earlier throughout the years, we urge the legislature to give county parties the ability to have direct ballot access in the same way state parties have. Lastly, we encourage the passage legislation to refer to all elected offices in New York using gender neutral terms.
Enhance and invest in our Vote by Mail options
Design a uniform paper and online application and oath envelope for all Vote by Mail options in New York including military and overseas voters.
Allow County Board of Elections the option to continue to scan vote by mail ballots during the Early Voting Period (Bi-partisan support)
Authorize the issuing of same-day absentee ballots in those instances when commissioners agree that health-related exigencies on or immediately prior to Election Day create hardship. (A5043) (Bi-partisan support) (NYSBOE support)
One of the fastest growing methods of voting in New York is vote by mail. We should build upon this success. Voters should be presented with a uniform application for both Absentee and Vote by Mail so voters can [properly choose the method right for them. We also want county Board of Elections to have an option to scan vote by mail ballots during the Early Voting period if the Board of elections has the resources to do so. Finally, we would like the ability for Elections Commissioners to issue emergency same-day absentee ballots for health-related emergencies on election Day.
Emphasize the importance of Election Day on the State and National Level
Designation of Election Day as a non-attendance day for public school students. (Bi-partisan support) (A2041/S9552) (NYSBOE support) (Bi-partisan support)
Support a Federal Holiday on Election Day (Bi-partisan support)
New York State and the Federal Government have the ability to place an importance on Election Day and should do so. Mandating a non-student attendance day throughout New York will not only ensure the availability of public buildings that are HAVA compliant poll sites, but also alleviate student safety concerns. A federal holiday will go even further, freeing up public workers for use as inspectors as well as giving voters the freedom to take part in our Democracy.
Strengthen our Boards of Elections and our Democracy by enacting these reforms
Support of the Democracy During Detention Act.(S440/A2121)
Allow for Vote Centers on Election Day as well as Early Voting on a permissive basis. (Bi-partisan support) (S569/A6449) PASSED SENATE
All Election Inspectors should be paid at least minimum wage for hours worked throughout New York State.
Allow elected officials to act as Election Inspectors upon bi-partisan agreement of the Board of Elections Commissioners(Bi-partisan support)
Repeal sections of 4-118, 4-119, 4-120 and 4-122 election law eliminating the requirement to publish legal ads prior to each election(Bi-partisan support)
In favor of proposing a statewide comprehensive voter registration and election management system with input from counties and stakeholders funded by New York State.(Bi-partisan support)
These reforms will allow Boards of Elections to operate more efficiently and focus on serving the voters. Bringing Democracy to all citizens through the Democracy During Detention Act is an important next step in the reforms we have embarked on in New York since 2019. Allowing vote centers on Election Day as we do for Early Voting is convenient for voters, leading to increased participation. Establishing a minimum wage for inspectors will help with recruitment and workforce development, which has been an ongoing struggle for every county in NYS. Giving the Boards flexibility to allow public officials to serve as inspectors when needed can help fill gaps. Repealing outdated publishing laws will save money while reducing workloads at County boards. Finally, a state-wide voter registration system paid for by NYS will save county dollars and provide an additional resource to County Boards to ensure their voter rolls are as accurate as possible.
The Democratic caucus of NYS Elections Commissioners stand ready to assist any legislator willing to take up one of our priorities that does not yet have a bill number. We also encourage legislators to co-sponsor the bills we have included in our priorities as well. If you have any questions or wish to meet on any of these proposals, please reach out to our Caucus Chair, Dustin Czarny, at dustinczarny@gmail.com or 315-383-4318.
(Bi-partisan support) Indicates a common goal with the NYS Elections Commissioner Association Overall Legislative Agenda as Approved by bi-partisan Elections Commissioners in January 2026.
(NYSBOE support) Indicates a common goal with the NYS Board of Elections as part of their Election law proposals.
It is time for another edition of the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly look at electoral and registration data in Onondaga County and New York. I am currently in the middle of a four-part series taking an overall look at our home Onondaga County heading into 2026. Part 1 Onondaga County Overall and Part 2 Onondaga County Suburbs can be found here (https://dustinczarny.com/weekly-wonk/) as well as all my now weekly episodes. This week I bring you part 3 in this series with a focus on the City of Syracuse which will elect an at-large member of the Common Council in 2026.
Unlike the county, the City of Syracuse voter population has remained stagnant. The Onondaga County Board of Elections only has enrollment data readily available going back to 2009. If we compare 2009 to 2025, which are both November collections in the year after the Presidential election, the difference is Syracuse has only grown by 693 voters. The city of Syracuse has behaved the same, large gains in a Presidential election, then large drop offs in between. The reason for that is obvious, Syracuse University. Younger college voters tend to register in the Presidential years and then leave the area after graduation resulting in a fall off voters.
According to registration data pulled on January 11, 2026, the City of Syracuse currently has 70,008 voters. 37,395 (53%) are Democratic, giving Democrats a rare straight majority. The non-enrolled are second with 20,158 voters (29%) and the Republicans are a distant third with just 9,038 voters (13%). Democrats have a whopping 40.51% advantage in the City of Syracuse. The City of Syracuse has 5 Common Council districts drawn by the Citizen led independent redistricting board in 2022. District lines are drawn based on the number of residents, not on how many people are registered to vote. So, this leads to a substantial change in registered voters. The 3rd Common Council District on the east side is the lowest registered voters with 11,243 (16%) mainly because of Syracuse University and Lemoyne College being inside its borders. Up next is the first common council district with just 11,782 (17%) on the northside, known for a large refugee non-citizen community. The west side second common Council (15,131 22%), inner city and vallfourth4th common council (15,466 22%), and Eastwood based 5th Common Council (16,386 23%) are close together at the top.
The story of the City of Syracuse is not so much Democratic dominance, but the rising tide of the non-enrolled. Democrats are the majority party but have remained stagnate since the watershed election of 2016 losing 540 voters. The Republicans on the other hand have lost over twice as many with 1213 less voters. This is especially troubling considering how much of a deficit they had to begin with. In many ways 2016 signaled the beginning of this non-enrolled wave we are seeing, especially in the city. The non-enrolled have grown by 3,993 voters since 2016. We can see why Ben Walsh had a path to victory in 2017 and 2021 despite not being a Democrat. We also see why Sharon Owens his former deputy mayor was able to win so largely as she was able to bring his strength with non-enrolled and add her party affiliation of Democrat to the mix.
No matter which commo council district you pick, the Democrats dominate every corner to varying degrees of intensity. The most democratic in terms of percentage is the east side third common council district with the mighty 17th ward anchoring a +52.90% partisan gain for Democrats. However, the inner city/valley 4th Common Council district (+50.89%), West side 2nd Common Council (+360.40%) and Eastwood based fifth common council (+34.28%) have statistically more Democrats. The least Democratic district is the north side first which has +28.99% democratic lean. In all five districts Democrats had significant advantage doubling, tripling, and even sextupling them. IN every district the non-enrolled more than doubled the GOP as well.
We can see this dominance by the Democrats reflected on the heat map. For this map I wanted to look at the individual words of the City of Syracuse. The sizes of these nineteen wards differ, as their boundaries were established when the city expanded and incorporated what were once farming communities. I had to amplify my normal heat map as there was not one word in the city that was not in the highest category I used to look at other parts of the county. Wards 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, & 7 are in the 2029% Democratic advantage range. Wards 6,8, & eleven are next in the 30-39% range. Wards 9, 12, 13, 14, & 15 are in the 4049% Democratic range. The most Democratic wards ate10, 16, 17, 18, & 19 in over 50% Democratic range.
I decided this year to try and do some analysis of age when it comes to voting Demographics. The average age of the City of Syracuse voters is 47.76 years. This is significantly down from Onondaga County Average of 50.89 years. When we look at the age block the age range of 31-40 is significantly larger (14,078 22%) than the rest of the age groups, so it is not just university students bringing down the average age. Not only is it younger it is way more Democratic in every age group. Across the county as a whole and in the suburbs, non-enrolled individuals make up the largest group among the youngest age brackets. However, within the city, Democrats have the highest numbers in all age groups—including those aged 18 to 30. We also see the non-enrolled outnumber the GOP in every age group whereas the Gop performed better in the 51+ in the suburbs and county.
All this registration data eventually leads us to the performance of the city, which has been predominately and overwhelmingly Democratic. The City of Syracuse had a city-wide election I could compare to in 2025, the Syracuse mayoral race. Here we saw Sharon Owens have one of the more lopsided victories any Democrat has ever had in the city with an over 55% victory over her Gop opponent. In our comparative races it is consistent that a Democrat will get between 72 and 77% of the vote coming out of the city. John Mannion in 2024 Congressional race got the largest share in our comparisons with 76.93% of the vote. Emily Bersani in the county clerk race in 2023 got the lowest share of 72.50% but also had one of the closest races in Onondaga County history. Her overperformance in the city from her county wide totals of +22.36% led to her victory in that low turnout year.
That is, it is for this week’s edition of the #weeklywonk. Nest week I wrap up my four-part series looking at Onondaga County heading into 2026 with an overview of the County Legislature which will hold election in even years for the first time in NY State history. Then after that I will start looking individually at the towns in Onondaga County. As always you can subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election news updates.
This week I focus on the winter conference of the NYS Elections Commissioner Association. Held this last week it is one of our main training opportunities for Lead Election Officials in NY or as we call them, County Election Commissioners. And a special shout out to the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen for their win this week. Enjoy.
Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly column reporting on electoral and registration data for Onondaga County and New York State. This column was on a bit of a break in late 2024 and 2025 with only occasional postings but is now back with vengeance. We are in the middle of my four parts looking at Onondaga County as we head into the new year. Last week I covered Onondaga County as a whole (found here https://dustinczarny.com/2026/01/01/the-weekly-wonk-onondaga-county-overall-2026/). This week I continue with part 2 of my look at Onondaga County with a focus on the suburbs and towns outside the City of Syracuse.
The voters outside of the city of Syracuse are evenly split. Of the 234,608 voters that live outside the City of Syracuse 32% are Democrat (76,411), 31% Republican (73,969), 29%, non-enrolled also 31% (72,492), the third parties make up about 6% (9,707 Other, 4,506 Conservatives, 918 Working Families). This means the areas outside the city of Syracuse have a 1.03% Democratic lean, which is down 10.00% Democratic lean in the county. I tend to look at Onondaga County in three distinct groups. The nine large suburban towns (Camillus, Clay, Cicero, Dewitt, Geddes, Lysander, Manlius, Onondaga, & Salina) with over 10k active registered voters, the 10 small rural towns (Elbridge, Fabius, Lafayette, Manlius, Otisco, Pompey, Skaneateles, Spafford, Tully, & Van Buren) with under 10k registered voters, and the City of Syracuse. The large suburban towns make up the majority of Onondaga County with 197,268 voters (64%), the City of Syracuse is second with 69,982 voters (23%), and the smaller rural towns make up the smallest voter count with just 40,735 voters (13%).
The Democratic rise in the voters outside of Syracuse is the driving factor that has turned our county blue. We see in this chart the rise was dramatic during the first Trump term (2016-2020) and since then the parties have leveled off. However, the rise of the non-enrolled in the suburbs is the most 2016 is the sea change year. Democrats grew by 8,837 voters outside the City of Syracuse since 2016, while the GOP gained just 589 voters. The non-enrolled explosion in Onondaga County can also start in 2016 and it has added 14,442 voters to their ranks. They are the biggest growing segment and the only segment significantly growing since 2020.
The partisan makeup of the three portions of our county is vastly different. Democrats dominate the City of Syracuse with a +40.51% enrollment advantage. Democrats also have a slight registration advantage in the large suburban towns with a +3.38% enrollment advantage. Republicans dominate the small rural towns with a +10.35% enrollment advantage. The non-enrolled dwarf the GOP inside the city adding to their disadvantage there. They also slightly eclipse the GOP in the large suburban towns while slightly overtaking the Democrats in the small rural towns. This pattern of the n/e mimics the growth and parity in these regions overtaking a major party in all three regions.
When looking at the heat map of the towns of Onondaga county individually we see definitive stratification and diversity of the amount of partisan lean in a town. Syracuse is overwhelmingly Democrat in the +20% partisan advantage range. Dewitt follows next with a strong Democrat advantage in the 15-19% range. Two more towns, Salina and Manlius, are in the lean Democratic range of 5-10%. Camillus, Clay, Geddes, and Onondaga are the borderline Democratic towns in the 0-5% range. Cicero, Lysander, Marcellus, Pompey, Skaneateles, Tully, and Van Buren are in the lean Republican range of 5-10%. Lafayette and Spafford are in the moderate GOP range of 10-15%. Elbridge is in the strong GOP range of 15-20%. Finally, Otisco and Fabius round out the towns in the overwhelming GOP range of +20%.
This chart shows the changes in individual towns since 2009. Looking at the registration rates since 2009 it is important to note that most towns shifted toward the Democratic party in partisan difference between Republicans and Democrats. Dewitt and Salina were slight Democratic towns in 2009 and shifted well towards the Democrats. The towns of Camillus, Clay, Geddes, Manlius, and Onondaga reversed from GOP towns to Democratic towns in terms of partisan advantage. Lafayette, Lysander, Marcellus, Pompey, Skaneateles, Spafford, Tully, and Van Buren remained GOP lean towns, but Democrats cut into the partisan advantage. Cicero, Elbridge, Fabius, & Otisco were the only towns that shifted to the GOP over that time frame.
I am introducing age as a statistic I am tracking this year with my #weeklywonk breakdowns. What we are seeing about the places outside the City of Syracuse is they are older than the rest of the county. The average age of non-city voters is 51.79 years old. That is almost one year older than the Onondaga County average of 50.87 years. T=Every age group is also more republican than the age group average of Onondaga County as a whole. When looking at the voting age groups, Democrats and Non-enrolled Dominate the 18-50 ranges like they do in Onondaga County as a whole. However, the GOP dominates the 51-71+ranges. The age groups tend to run 6-9% more GOP than their counterparts in the county.
Despite the GOP having a significant sway in in partisan leans, when it comes to results in the recent races we are comparing, the Democrats have tended to outkick their coverage. Democrats won both the 2024 Presidential election and Congressional election in the non-city areas by only 4.23% less than they won in Onondaga County. There was a similar outcome in the 2022 congressional race with Democrats winning but with 3.81% less than they won Onondaga County. They lost the Governor’s race in the non-city portions but only underperformed the Onondaga County average by 4.04%. The best performer in the towns when compared to their overall average was Emily Bersani for County Clerk in 2023 only trailing by 2,66%, The worst performer in the towns was Anthony Bersani in the 2021 Supreme Court race trailing his overall performance by 5.66%. This data suggests that in the competitive races the non-enrolled and nonpartisans in the non-city areas tends to align with the Democrats more than the GOP.
That is, it is for this week’s edition of the #weeklywonk. Next week I will continue looking at the regions of Onondaga County as we head into 2026. The City of Syracuse will be the focus of part 3 launching either Wednesday or Thursday of next week. In the meantime, you can subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election news updates.
Dustin M. Czarny 