Welcome back to #wonkywednesday. Each week I take a deep dive into the electoral and voter registration data that makes up our home here in Onondaga County and across New York State. Once again, I revisit how redistricting is impacting our county. This week I once again look at our county as a whole and see what the voter registration numbers say about our home.

It is helpful to think of Onondaga County as having three distinct populations. You have the urban core in the City of Syracuse which behaves like most urban cores in our country, heavily blue but with participation issues in local years. You also have the rural communities, towns under 10k population. These towns (colored red above) wind around the southern half of our county and up the western edge. Like most rural communities they tend to be more conservative and more republican. We then have the suburban community of towns that have over 10k voter registration (colored purple above). These communities are the towns immediately surrounding Syracuse as well as the northern towns. These communities have gone through the most change over the last 20 years as urban communities that have left Syracuse and newer voters have made these towns more swing districts, and more populous, then in the past.

The current enrollment of Onondaga County is 300,222 down from our all-time high of 308,798 in June of 2021. This drop off is normal in the years following a Presidential election as voters tend to not update voter registration becoming inactive and new voters fail to register. The Democratic share of Onondaga County has is at 38%. The GOP share is currently just over 27%. The Non-enrolled earlier this year for the first time actually overtook the GOP enrollment and is now at just over 28%. The three distinct regions of Onondaga County show where the population lies as well. The rural towns make up a large land mass but have just 13% of the voting population. The City of Syracuse gets a lot of attention in terms of cultural significance to our county but makes up just 23% of the population. The vast majority of our county live in the Suburban large towns which house 64% of the voting population.

As we look at these three regions it is clear why Democrats are emerging as a plurality and the GOP are falling to third place. The dominance in the City of Syracuse continues with Democrats having four times as many voters as the GOP and the non-enrolled doubling the GOP. But even in the suburban towns Democrats have a plurality with a growing and significant lead over the GOP and the non-enrolled are just behind. Only in the rural towns does the GOP hold a significant, and growing, numerical edge. However, the smaller population there can not make up for the huge losses in Syracuse and loss of ground in the suburbs. Next week I will further breakdown the towns into regional subgroups to analyze them further.

Though Democrats have had significant growth since 1996, there is sign that there may be stagnation in that growth. One of the fallouts from the Trump candidacy of 2016 in the northeast was a large growth in Democratic population in his 4-year term while the GOP struggled to keep pace. We certainly saw that in Onondaga County from 2017-2019 as Democrats gained each year and the lost ground. In 2020 both parties saw surges in enrollment for the presidential but are now on a 2-year decline. This could be normal decline as voter population has declined as well. However, the non-enrolled population has grown consistently since 2015. That pace did not match the Democratic growth until 2020 where the N/E growth grew substantially and continues to grow as Partisan enrollment has declined. As registrations pick up later this year, we will get a better sense of if this is an anomaly, or a trend.

The emerging Democratic plurality in the county has not always led to electoral success. Though turnout is an issue in odd numbered years, Democrats have not always been able to put together winning coalitions in even years as well. President Biden won this county by almost twenty points in 2020, however the congressional race between John Katko and Dana Balter was a nail biter with Katko having a small 2.52% plurality in the vote. Complicating that race was the presence of a third-party candidate Steve Williams on the WFP line due to a fluke in filing paperwork. We see in 2018 Dana Balter actually won Onondaga County by 2.14 points without that third party presence and likely would have in 2020 as well. Governor Cuomo in 2018 won our county by 6.07 points but not with a majority, though in Governor years there are always an inordinate number of third-party candidates that siphon votes from the major parties. In the same year though Democrats lost the Sheriff race by over ten points against incumbent Gene Conway.

This year there are several County Wide candidates that will be looking to try to mobilize the Democratic plurality and win races. We have 2 County Court judge seats and Sheriff on the ballot this year. Onondaga County will also be critical to the Governor, Supreme Court, and congressional races as well. It will be important for Democratic chances in those races to not only mobilize Democratic population but win or break even in the ascending non-enrolled population.

Welcome back to #wonkywednesday. Each week I take a deep dive into the electoral and voter registration data that makes up our home here in Onondaga County and across New York State. Once again, I revisit how redistricting is impacting our county. This time we take a look at the Supreme Court race for the 5^th Judicial district.

The 5^th Judicial District in New York spans six counties, Herkimer, Jefferson, Lewis, Oneida, Oswego, & Onondaga county. The Supreme Court is the largest non-statewide race on the ballot in New York. The Supreme Court is actually the first step for many civil cases in New York not the final court as the name would imply. Supreme Court justices serve for 14-year terms and often elected several justices in a single year due to retirements and natural ends of terms. In 2022 the 5^th Judicial District will have three seats up as David Murad (D), Edward D Carni (R) terms are up, and Patrick McRae (R) has reached the mandatory retirement age of seventy.

The 5th Judicial district is a pretty evenly split district. Republicans have the smallest plurality of enrollment with 35% of the district. Democrats are 33% of the district in a close second. Non-enrolled are 25% of the district. By region Onondaga County dominates the district with 48% of the enrolled voters, Oneida County comes in second at 21% of the voters, and Oswego (12%), Jefferson (10%), Herkimer (6%) and Lewis (3%) round out the six-county district.

It is only because Onondaga County is so populous that the district remains competitive. In fact, this district could be seen as two polar opposites. Democratic leaning Onondaga County versus the other five republican leaning counties. Herkimer, Jefferson, Lewis, Oneida, and specially Oswego’s GOP tilt makes it hard for a Democrat to get elected unless the rely heavily on the turnout in Onondaga County. This often means relying on even years with higher turnout to have a chance.

Democrats have made substantial gains in the district gaining over 19k voters since 1996. Republicans have lost over 38k voters since 1996. Of course, as is the trend with many seats, the non-enrolled grew the most gaining nearly 38k voters since 1996. Democrats seemed poised to take over the plurality of this district by drawing within 10k voters in 2019. However, since then the Has grown its margin to 14k vote plurality. This is because Onondaga County has been trending blue while the rest of the district has trended redder since 2020.

Despite our enrollment disadvantage, Democrats have seen a good deal of success since 2004. From 199 to 2004 the court elected 13 GOP judges to just 1 Democratic judge. Since 2004 11 Democrats have been elected to 14 GOP. This is usually because in odd years Democrats have employed a strategy of running fewer judges concentrating all their votes on one or running in even years where Democratic turnout is higher to support Governor or Presidential candidates.

We do not yet know the official candidates for Supreme Court. Supreme Court candidates for the major parties are not nominated directly by the voters. There is a judicial convention held in August who nominate slates of candidates to face off in the General Election. While it is announced that David Murad (D) is running for re-election the other seats have no announced judicial candidates as of this time.

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