Elections Professional and Activist
This week I talk about the troubling and alarming developments on the FBI raid on Fulton County Georgia Election offices along with some positive updates blocking unilateral Executive order to the U.S. Election Assistance Commission and spurious DOJ subpoenas on Voter Registration rolls. Enjoy.
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Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly article on electoral and registration data that I host on dustinczarny.com. This series is meant as an informational article for voters and candidates wanting to learn more about our home Onondaga county and the State of New York. Today I start my 6-part series focusing on the towns that will be filling potential Democratic candidates by designating petitions. Today we focus on the Town of Elbridge, a deep red town that I have not explored in this series since 2021. The town of Elbridge will have a single Town Justice seat up in 2025.
The Town of Elbridge is one of the smaller rural towns in the western part of Onondaga County. The Republicans have a solid plurality in this town at 1,535 voters (39%). The non-enrolled are second with 1,130 voters (29%). The Democrats are a distant third at 924 voters (24%), There are 168 voters (4%) enrolled in various other parties, 120 (3%) in the Conservative party, and 21 (1%) working family’s voters. There are five election districts in Elbridge, all equal in number of registered voters. Two election districts represent the two villages in Elbridge, the village of Jordan (ED 2) and the village of Elbridge (ED 5).
The voter population in the Town of Elbridge has experienced an increase. Like the county overall, the growth is substantial after the Democratic takeover of New York State government in 2018. Online Voter registration, DMV online registration, a statewide voter registration database, and 10-day constitutional minimum have combined to allow more people to get on and stay on the voter rolls. Thise year I am going back to the 12016 election which is a sea change in modern elections and ten years ago for comparisons. During this time Elbridge added 327 voters, a growth of 9.16%.
Looking at the heat map of the five election districts in the Town of Elbridge we see that all of them are well into the GOP range of the map. The Village of Jordan (ED 2) leans GOP (GOP +5-9%). The Village of Elbridge (ED 5) is a moderate GOP lean (10-14%). The southern eds one & four are strong GOP leans (+15-19%). Finally, ED 4 in the north is an overwhelming GOP lean (+20% or more).
Diving into the ED themselves we see a bleak prospect for Democrats. Only the villages (Ed 2 Jordan and ED 5 Elbridge) are Democrats in second place outnumbering the non-enrolled, barely. All three other EDs fall into third place. A political party faces a significant disadvantage within a political subdivision when non-enrolled individuals outnumber its members. This highlights the Democrats only real hope of winning in Elbridge is to have heavy turnout in the villages as well as a large advantage in the non-enrolled population everywhere.
In these two charts we see the partisan trends in the Town of Elbridge. The top chart compares the three main modes of Registration: Democrats, Republicans, and Non-enrolled. As we can see the GOP has been leading consistently since 2009, and well before). Since 2016 things have gotten worse for the Democrats as they only gained forty-two voters while the GOP has gained 120 voters. However, the non-enrolled grew by more than both parties combined adding 216 voters. In the bottom chart we look at the impact of the conservative and working families’ parties and how it skews the electorate, to the right mostly. The lower the percentage the better for the right leaning ideologies (GOP and Conservative). Elbridge at -18.21% is at its lowest since 2010.
In 2026 my #weeklywonks are going to examine the effect of age on the political subdivisions we cover. The town of Elbridge is one of the oldest towns in Onondaga County. Forty-one percent of the voting population is over 60 years old. The average age of the voter in Elbridge is 53.22 years old. Compared with the average Onondaga County voting age of 50.87 years old, Elbridge is significantly older than the rest of the county. The age group ranges are also more GOP than anything else. Though in the youngest range the non-enrolled outnumber both parties, there is not a real statistical difference in the under fifty age ranges. As we get over 50 the GOP really dominate the 51-60 and 71+ groups, though less so the 61-70 group which is different than the pattern we have seen as the oldest and youngest groups being the best for Democrats.
Finally, Elbridge acts in the way you suspect it might give the rightward lean of its registration in our comparative races. For the Town races we are going to look at 6 different comparative races. We can see on average in an even year Elbridge acts a little differently than in odd years, but still a major GOP stronghold. The worst race to run in Elbridge was the 2023 County Clerk race, almost 40% worse than the county average. The best Democrat to run in Elbridge was Congressman John Mannion who typically outperforms the other five comparative races. He still lost Elbridge by 17.74%. Elbridge is likely to have 35-40% more support for the GOP compared to other areas of the county.
That is, it is for this week’s edition of the #weeklywonk. Next week I continue to look at the Towns filling Democratic offices by petitions, holding elections in an even year for the first time. Part of this 6-part series will be the Democratic stronghold of Manlius. Coming soon will be Marcellus, Onondaga, Salina, & Spafford will be coming soon (skipping Lysander for 2026 as they have no offices up.). As always you can subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election updates.
In this week’s episode I talk about the 5 vacancies that have happened in Onondaga County since the November Election. Vacancies in the City of Syracuse Common Council At-Large, Town boards on Marcellus and Pompey, Town Justice in Salina and the removal of a Commissioner of Education in Syracuse create a weird set of circumstances. I also end with thoughts on the horrible situation in Minnesota and why we face a moment of truth.
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“The appeals process could take up to a year and there are several moving parts that make replacing — or keeping — Billue difficult, said Onondaga County Elections Commissioner Dustin Czarny.
Normally, Syracuse citizens would vote onan open seat during the November general election. Beginning Feb. 24, candidates can begin petitioning to be put on the ballot, Czarny said. Petitioners need to get 1,000 signatures by April 2.
But this could be upended by the appeals process.
Billue could ask Rosa or a state Supreme Court Judgeto reinstate her temporarily while her appeal plays out. Bullock said she will likely take this action.
If Billue is reinstated, the political parties can nominate a candidate beginning March 26. However if Rosa has not made a decision by Aug. 3 and Billue is still sitting temporarily, the school board election for her seatwill be pushed back to the 2027 general election, according to Czarny.”
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Onondaga County Democratic Elections Commissioner Dustin Czarny said the town can appoint someone to fill the seat temporarily. An election would then be held in November to fill his seat for four-year term that would start in January 2027.
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I appeared on WCNY’s the Capitol Pressroom to talk about Village elections and the problems with South Blooming Grove this last year. I outlined what the issues were and how we can run Village elections better by using the County Board of elections to administer it.
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Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly article on election data that I post on my website, dustinczarny.com. Each week I dive into electoral and registration data into different political subdivisions in Onondaga County and New York State. This week I am finishing my four parts look at Onondaga County heading into 2026. You can find part 1 Onondaga County Overall, Part 2 Onondaga County Suburbs, and Part 3 City of Syracuse at the Weekly Wonk section of my website (https://dustinczarny.com/weekly-wonk/). This week is my final edition of this segment, part 4, The Onondaga County Legislative Districts 2026.
For the first time in 50 years the Democrats took control of the Onondaga County legislature following the 2025 elections. At the end of 2024 Republicans held an 11-6 majority which grew to 12-5 when Chris Ryan assumed his NYS Senate Seat and County Executive Ryan McMahon appointed a GOP representative to the seat. This proved to be a one-year rental as OCL 8 is an overwhelmingly Democratic district and Chad Ryan, cousin to Chris Ryan, won a primary and the General election handy. His win along with four other seats that flipped to the Democrats gave Democrats their 10-7 majority. The Democrats retained their seats in OCL districts 7, 9, 15, 16, and 17, with the GOP contesting only one of them. The Democrats won seats in OCL 4, 5, 6, 8, and 10, with every seat contested. THE GOP held onto OCL 1, 2, 3, 11, 12, 13 & 14 and the Democrats did not field candidates in any of those seats in 2025.
The heat map shows the registration data for all the Onondaga County legislative district. This map shows the difference between the Democratic registration percentage and Republican registration percentage. Here we see the outcome of the years of gerrymandering and packing and cracking of districts in our county. However, it is also a result of the polarization of our country. The six dark blue districts (Dem +20%, OCL 7,8,9,15,16, & 17) pack into the highly dense Democratic district in Syracuse and parts of Dewitt and Geddes. However, the Democratic conversion in the suburbs have brough four districts into a lean Democratic (+5-9%, OCL 2,4,5,10). OCL 14 is the only borderline Democratic district (Dem +0-4%). There are four borderline GOP districts (rep 0-4% OCL 6, 11, 12, 13) that use the more rural parts of our county to give these districts a negative partisan lean. OCL 1 and 3, located in the northern corners of our county, are among the largest geographic regions that regularly lean Republican, with a GOP advantage of 5-9%.
Just looking at Democrat vs Republican does not give the whole story of the county. This chart aligns the Conservative members with the GOP and Working Families with the Democrat. Since conservatives outnumber the WFP five to one, most districts have shifted to the right. For example, OCL 14 moves to the GOP, and all other districts shift to the right, except for those based solely in cities where WFP and CON are evenly matched. I also noted on this chart there are only two districts where a member represents a district that does not lean their way ideologically. Although OCL 2 leans slightly to the left, the GOP currently represents the area because there has not yet been a strong Democratic candidate. Democrats managed to win OCL 6 after multiple attempts, successfully overturning the seat even though it had a strong ideological leaning. I anticipate that opposing parties will focus on contesting both seats in 2026.
This chart shows the change in majorities since 2011. In 2011 the Onondaga County Legislature following a vote of the voters reduced the 19-member body down to seventeen seats. While redistricting was underway, Ryan McMahon, a young Republican city council member, joined the Onondaga County Redistricting Commission and suggested creating long winding districts that combined city areas with nearby suburbs, resulting in a heavily gerrymandered supermajority. The McMander resulted in a 13-4 supermajority, which enabled McMahon to win election both to a seat he played a role in establishing and to serve as Chair of the legislature. The Republicans maintained a strong majority up to the Trump administration, after which Democratic registration increased in suburban regions. As a result, Democrats captured two seats originally intended for the GOP—one in 2017 and another in 2019. The country took a right wing turn in 2021 and the Flip the Leg” movement failed. In 2023 there was a new map drawn under the direction of GOP appointee Kevin Hulsander. The expedited Hulsmander map removed certain shared districts; subsequently, the Republican Party approved a map that was later determined to be unlawful. The court case continued until late 2025, requiring the GOP legislature to redraw the map once more. Though they only made slight changes, that and Democratic overperformance resulted in the legislature flip last year.
2011 was a pivotal year in the story of the Onondaga County Legislature. Since the McMander in 2011 we had a redistricting process in 2023 (The Hulsmander map) and the court mandated map in 2025. This along with the partisan shift of our county mostly, but not totally, because of Donald Trump has had a dramatic effect on each of the seventeen districts. Fourteen of the seventeen districts have shifted towards the Democrats. Just one, OCL 3, shifted to the GOP’s control after the 2023 Hulsmander moved its district northward into Cicero and away from Manlius. The same map shifted OCL 15 into the city and we saw a substantial change in that district.
2026 is the first time in Onondaga County history that the county legislature elections will run on even year lines. To get an idea on how these districts perform instead of just their registration rates, I compare how these districts voted in both the 2022 Governor Hochul election and the 2024 Presidential election. This gives an idea on why every district can be more competitive for Democrats in 2026. The 2022 Hochul election is one of the most challenging contests Democrats had faced in years. Likewise, the 2024 Presidential election was a downturn from 2020. Since we are comparing percentage victories here, we can get an idea on how these districts may perform next year. This data was hard to put together as both 2022 and 2024 were on two different maps than the lines now, so I had to compile this data at the election district level and realign with the new districts. Under this scenario Hochul carried 11 of 17 districts and Harris carried 15 of 17 districts. Likely the districts will perform this year somewhere between the percentages of these two elections, but local candidates will matter as well as local issues. Still, there is also a possibility that a broad Democratic surge year like 2025 on an even year scale like we saw in 2018 could put every district in play.
Finally, I look at age in Onondaga County during my #weeklywonks this year. When we look at age in the last few #weeklywonks we saw that the younger the age group Democrats did better under 50 and better the younger you went (though it is just as valid an argument it is the GOP losing to the non-enrolled and doing worse rather than Democrats doing better. Democrats also do better in the oldest age group. So, it is not a surprise that the two oldest districts (OCL 6 & 10) and six of the seven youngest districts (OCL 7, 8, 9, 15, 16, 17) belong to the Democrats. The GOP continues to hold power in the new district (OCL 2), largely because no opposition is challenging it. This also shows that the rest of the districts (OCL 1, 3,4,5, 11,12, 13, & 14) are typical swing districts in terms of age.
That is, it is for this week’s edition of the #weeklywonk. This also wraps up my 4-part series on Onondaga County heading into 2026. Starting next week, I will focus on the towns holding elections in an even year for the first time. My next 6-part series will be on the towns that nominate candidates based on Petitions (Elbridge, Manlius, Marcellus, Onondaga, Salina, & Spafford). There are seven towns that do so, but I am skipping Lysander this year because they do not have any offices up. If that changes, I will add it into the mix later. We start with the town of Elbridge next. As always you can subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election updates.
Onondaga County Elections Commissioner Dustin Czarny told syracuse.com that removing an elected official in this capacity is rare.
“Usually vacancies happen when somebody gets a job or we’ve had deaths. This is a weird one,“ Czarny said. ”I don’t remember a removal from a local committee.”
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In this week’s episode I try to honor Martin Luther King Jr. and reflect on his role as a voting rights champion. I collected a few of my favorite quotes of his and talk about his work in Selma and the Voting Rights Act of 1965. I think his story of peaceful non violent but confrontational protest is something we can look to today in this tumultuous time. Enjoy.
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Every year the Democratic Caucus of the NYS Election Commissioners Association identify a list of legislative and budget priorities to present to our legislative and executive leaders in New York to continuously improve voter experience and election administration. We denote the current bill numbers, legislative status, and whether this is a shared goal of the GOP caucus of NYSECA or the NYS Board of Elections.
Give Boards of Elections the ability to properly serve the voters of New York.
Since 2019, long awaited election reform has changed local Boards of Elections’ responsibilities without making the structural changes needed for accurate implementation that meets the needs of our voters. These proposals will give County Commissioners the ability to strategically plan and bring year-round, full-time management to the Board of Elections in every county. We also support required training and certification for all Election Commissioners and deputies to ensure professional operations of each Board of Elections. We must also ensure proper transitions when new Commissioners are elected, so we are advocating for limiting late calendar nominations that can cause chaos with respect to the political calendar.
Invest in our election system by providing the following funding streams in the New York State Budget.
The cost of running elections is mainly the responsibility of county governments. With the added responsibilities that the NYS Legislature has required of Boards of Elections, our staffing needs and equipment purchases continue to rise significantly. Each county has different needs; therefore, we are asking for a annual, dedicated Aid to Localities funding stream, replacing the various postage, equipment, and staffing grants. This is the best way for New York to meet its obligation to help county boards properly operate. We also support the NYS Board of Elections in their budget request to meet the increased regulatory and functionality services they are required to provide.
Provide flexibility for County Board of Election operations.
County Board of Elections need flexibility to meet the modern needs of the electorate. Each individual county has different needs. Allowing the county boards flexibility in designating election inspectors can help in rural and urban communities. Boards of Elections often need to operate at different hours than their county hosts. They also need flexibility in selecting Early Voting sites that are more suitable for their counties.
Reform the Automatic Hand Count to work more efficiently.
The automatic hand-count has been in place for several election cycles. We have learned that the precinct scanners are accurate. Lowering the threshold for the hand-count will allow the Board of Elections to only focus on the truly close races that have a chance of changing hands. We must also stipulate that the hand-count should only start after initial certification allowing boards to properly prepare and sort ballots for counting. We should exempt party positions from the hand count rule as these elections are routinely close but not close enough to switch winners and draw resources away from publicly held offices. Finally, we can also give candidates with lesser votes the options to bypass the hand count if they don’t wish to participate.
Enhance our Ballot Access laws to provide protections for parties and to give access to candidates.
Our ballot access laws need modern protections and adjustments to ensure competitive and free elections. Over the last few cycles, we have seen an increase in those wanting to exploit weaknesses in ballot access functions in order to steal party lines, aka party raiding. We urge the legislature to close these loopholes by extending the party change deadline until after the last day to caucus and to protect caucuses from party raiding in the same way we do other ballot access methods. As petitioning has been scheduled to start earlier throughout the years, we urge the legislature to give county parties the ability to have direct ballot access in the same way state parties have. Lastly, we encourage the passage legislation to refer to all elected offices in New York using gender neutral terms.
Enhance and invest in our Vote by Mail options
One of the fastest growing methods of voting in New York is vote by mail. We should build upon this success. Voters should be presented with a uniform application for both Absentee and Vote by Mail so voters can [properly choose the method right for them. We also want county Board of Elections to have an option to scan vote by mail ballots during the Early Voting period if the Board of elections has the resources to do so. Finally, we would like the ability for Elections Commissioners to issue emergency same-day absentee ballots for health-related emergencies on election Day.
Emphasize the importance of Election Day on the State and National Level
New York State and the Federal Government have the ability to place an importance on Election Day and should do so. Mandating a non-student attendance day throughout New York will not only ensure the availability of public buildings that are HAVA compliant poll sites, but also alleviate student safety concerns. A federal holiday will go even further, freeing up public workers for use as inspectors as well as giving voters the freedom to take part in our Democracy.
Strengthen our Boards of Elections and our Democracy by enacting these reforms
These reforms will allow Boards of Elections to operate more efficiently and focus on serving the voters. Bringing Democracy to all citizens through the Democracy During Detention Act is an important next step in the reforms we have embarked on in New York since 2019. Allowing vote centers on Election Day as we do for Early Voting is convenient for voters, leading to increased participation. Establishing a minimum wage for inspectors will help with recruitment and workforce development, which has been an ongoing struggle for every county in NYS. Giving the Boards flexibility to allow public officials to serve as inspectors when needed can help fill gaps. Repealing outdated publishing laws will save money while reducing workloads at County boards. Finally, a state-wide voter registration system paid for by NYS will save county dollars and provide an additional resource to County Boards to ensure their voter rolls are as accurate as possible.
The Democratic caucus of NYS Elections Commissioners stand ready to assist any legislator willing to take up one of our priorities that does not yet have a bill number. We also encourage legislators to co-sponsor the bills we have included in our priorities as well. If you have any questions or wish to meet on any of these proposals, please reach out to our Caucus Chair, Dustin Czarny, at dustinczarny@gmail.com or 315-383-4318.
(Bi-partisan support) Indicates a common goal with the NYS Elections Commissioner Association Overall Legislative Agenda as Approved by bi-partisan Elections Commissioners in January 2026.
(NYSBOE support) Indicates a common goal with the NYS Board of Elections as part of their Election law proposals.
Dustin M. Czarny