Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly column on data and statistics that I publish on dustinczarny.com. Each week I dive in the registration and electoral data around a political subdivision or electoral event affecting Onondaga County. I am currently in the middle of my nine-part series of New York State offices running this year. This week I focused on the Syracuse based NY Senate district. The current names NYS #48 has had a tumultuous past 30 years filled with twists and turns, but the data has been there through it all.

This district has had more heel turns than a Martin Scorsese movie. Onondaga County has always had two Senate districts. Since 2010 there have been two districts, the Syracuse based district, and the suburban based district. The Syracuse based district has changed parties, but not by traditional means. Longtime Democratic Senator Nancy Lorraine Hoffman shortly after the 1998 election stunned Democrats by defecting to the Republican party. The district stayed in Republican hands until Dave Valesky’s beat Nancy Lorraine in 2004. The district stayed in Democratic hands until 2011 when Senator Valesky left the Democratic caucus, but not the party, to join the NY IDC which gave effective control of the Senate to the Republicans. Then in 2018 current Senator Rachel May primaried Dave Velesky and won ushering in the death of the DC and giving Democrats full control of the legislature and New York government for the first time since 2006.

The current makeup of NY 48^th has 193,989 active registered voters as of February 20, 2026. 72,816 (37%) are Democrat and represent the plurality. In a telltale sign of a Democratic dominated district the non-enrolled are in second place with 55,811 (29%) voters. The Republicans are in third place with 53,777 (28%) voters. Rounding out the district are Other (6,708 3%), Conservative (3,633 2%) and Working families (1,244 1%). The district consists of three distinct sections. The City of Syracuse has 36% (69,986 voters) of the district. The south and west portions of Onondaga County make up the largest portion at 39% (75,539 voters). The entirety of Cayuga County is in the district and makes up just 25% (48,464 voters) of the district.

Like other districts in New York that we will examine, redistricting has played a significant role in shaping this district over the past decade. The district in Syracuse underwent significant changes because of the 2022 redistricting process. Under previous versions the district spread north and east from Syracuse into Oneida and Madison County. However, the so call NY “Independent” redistricting Commission flipped the Onondaga County Based districts, and the Syracuse based one went South and west through Onondaga County and have all of Cayuga County. Though perhaps the biggest change was the number of voters in the district. A new redistricting law mandated equal districts throughout New York State, ending the practice NY Republicans used to keep their shrinking majority bey having upstate districts have fewer voters in it. We see that in the big jump in population after redistricting. This is why the district has added 32,967 voters since 2016, a growth of 20.47% way larger than the Onondaga County average of +7.63%.

The three portions of the 48^th district show one of the major dynamics of the district. We see the highly dense City of Syracuse with an overwhelming Democratic lean of over +20%. The rest of the district does lean GOP, but not overwhelmingly so. The remaining Onondaga County portion is in the GOP +5-9% category. The same with Cayuga County which is also in the GOP +5-9% category. While there are towns better than others and the City of Auburn slightly tilts blue on its own, the story of this district is clear. Can the City of Syracuse continue to exert dominance over the rest of the district?

The voter breakdown of the city and county portion also buttresses that story. Democrats dominate the City of Syracuse at +40357% but the non-enrolled are also more than double the GOP. The rest of the Onondaga County portion we see the Gop have a plurality at +5.84% and the non-enrolled slightly outnumber the Democrats. Cayuga County is in between the two, Republicans have a higher percentage advantage at +8.64% but Democrats, barely, outnumber the non-enrolled.

When we look at the partisan trends of the district, we really see the effect redistricting has on the district. Despite a big swing in geography, the district is near the same in makeup. But there are slight differences. Since 2016 Democrats have added 8,767 voters and Republicans have added 8,833 voters. This was mostly after redistricting in 2022. However, the non-enrolled is the big gainer, almost equaling both parties together at +16,661 voters. In fact, the non-enrolled, due to the influence of Syracuse, grew more than the GOP in 2024. When we add in the conservatives and Wp to see the ideological bend of the district, we see there was a drop after redistricting, and a small regression since 20224. However, that is because urban areas tend to fluctuate the most between Presidential elections. Still the non-enrolled are the key to this district now more than ever.

Finally, without the ability to get comparison races that span the entire district because of the radical redistricting in 2021 we are going to look at the last five elections. In 2016 Dave Valesky because of his connections to the IDC and NY GOP caucus had his third straight non-contested election. In 2018 Rachel May beat Dave Valesky in the primary but Valesky remained on the ballot because NY laws about third parties not allowing him to drop off. She easily won election by 14.31%. In 2020 Rachel May won re-election by 10.59%. The closest election was the year after redistricting. One of the worst years for Democrats and a brand-new district had Rachel May only win by 7.21%. Although she was already likely to win a tight race, a third-party conservative candidate also helped her secure victory. In 2024 though Rachel May bounced back with her biggest win at +16.90% after the newer part of her district got to know her during the last ter. It is the Onondaga County portion of the district that consistently votes for May. Rachel May has won her last four elections by +12.25%, but won the Onondaga County portion of the district, including Syracuse by an average of +22.24%.

That is, it is for this week’s edition of the #weeklywonk. Next week I set my sites on the other Senate District in Onondaga County, the suburban based NY Senate District 50. This district fell into Democratic hands in 2020 after generations in Gop hands. We will look at the data as Senator Chris Ryan runs for re-election this year. As always, you can subscribe to Dustinczarny.com to get content and election news updates.

Welcome back to #WeeklyWonk, my weekly column examining political data published on dustinczarny.com. Each week, I explore a political subdivision or election event in Central New York or across New York State, using voter registration data and election results to tell a broader story about our political landscape. This week, I turn to the race likely to generate the most attention in our region: New York’s 22nd Congressional District. In 2024, John Mannion flipped this district from red to blue after a decade of Republican control. If he wins reelection it will be the first time a Democratic Congressperson has won reelection since 1980. As he prepares to take a run at history, it’s worth taking a closer look at how the district is currently structured and what the numbers tell us.

According to data from the New York State Board of Elections as of February 20, 2026, NY-22 has 488,683 registered voters. Democrats hold a plurality with 170,584 voters (35%). Republicans follow with 146,793 (30%), and non-enrolled voters are close behind at 141,095 (29%). Smaller parties make up the remainder: Other (19,196; 4%), Conservative (8,558; 2%), and Working Families (2,457; less than 1%). Geographically, NY-22 spans five counties: all of Onondaga and Madison counties, along with parts of Oneida, Cortland, and Cayuga. Onondaga County overwhelmingly dominates the district, accounting for 73% (308,109) of all voters. The Oneida portion contributes 17% (81,933), Madison 8% (44,228), Cayuga 7% (32,744), and Cortland 4% (21,669).

Any discussion of NY-22 must include redistricting. The Onondaga-based district has undergone three major configurations in recent years. The former NY-24 was created through a bipartisan legislative agreement in 2012. The contentious nature of that process led to the establishment of the New York Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC). However, in 2022, the IRC failed to produce a consensus map due to partisan divisions. The New York Supreme Court ultimately drew interim districts, and the Court of Appeals later directed the IRC to complete its work in time for the 2024 elections. Since 2016, the district has grown significantly, adding 59,752 voters—a 29.64% increase—due in part to redistricting changes and expanded voter registration access. By comparison, Onondaga County alone grew by just 7.63% during the same period.

A geographic and partisan “heat map” of the district highlights its diversity. Onondaga County leans solidly Democratic by about 10–14%, while Madison County leans strongly Republican by a similar margin. The remaining counties are more competitive: the Cayuga and Cortland portions fall in the GOP +0–4% range, while the Oneida portion (including Utica) sits in the Democratic +0–4% range.

Looking at the county breakdown underscores just how dominant Onondaga County is. It contains more voters in each major category—Democrat, Republican, and non-enrolled—than any of the other counties individually. The smaller counties are relatively balanced and therefore exert limited influence on the overall partisan makeup. While Madison County shows a strong Republican lean (+13.58%), its size is not large enough to offset Onondaga’s Democratic advantage (+10.05%), which ultimately drives the district’s overall partisan tilt.

Over time, the Onondaga-based district has shown a clear trend toward Democrats. This shift began under the old NY-24 boundaries and continued through subsequent redistricting cycles. While the 2022 court-drawn map slightly favored Democrats, the 2024 IRC map provided the most advantageous configuration yet. Since 2016, Democratic registration has grown by 25,089 voters, compared to a Republican increase of 6,506. The largest growth, however, has been among non-enrolled voters, which increased by 33,224. Despite these gains, the district’s overall partisan lean has shifted more modestly. In 2021, Democrats (including Working Families and Conservative cross-endorsements) held a +1.62% advantage. By 2024, that margin had increased to +5.75%.

While I don’t currently have the tools to fully analyze comparable past races across changing district lines, we can still draw meaningful insights from recent elections—particularly within Onondaga County. Mannion’s decisive +9.11% victory in 2024 cannot be explained solely by the district’s modest Democratic lean. Instead, the key lies in Onondaga County’s performance. In 2018, Dana Balter won Onondaga County, and in 2020 she likely would have done so again if not for a split Working Families Party line caused by a paperwork issue. In 2022, Democrat Conole carried Onondaga by +12.00%, and in 2024, Mannion expanded that margin to an overwhelming +18.78%. Given Onondaga County’s size and influence, this trend has been central to the district’s Democratic resurgence.

That’s it for this week’s #WeeklyWonk. Next week, I’ll continue my nine-part series on New York State offices, beginning with State Senate District 48, which includes parts of Syracuse and extends west into Cayuga County. As always, you can subscribe at dustinczarny.com for more updates and analysis.

Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly article on dustinczarny.com about statistics and data. Each week I dive into the electoral and registration data on a political subdivision or election relevant to 2026. Currently I am in the middle of diving into the New York Stat races appearing on the Onondaga County Ballot this year. This week I am diving into part two of this nine-part series, the NYS Supreme Court race in the fifth judicial district.

We select our Supreme court seats in New York (which is the lowest court level) in judicial districts. These massive districts are the largest political subdivisions in New York State. The 5^th Judicial district spans six counties, Herkimer, Jeffereson, Lewis, Oneida, Onondaga, and Oswego County. According to the NYS Board of Elections February 20, 2026, enrollment reports it has 642,505 voters. Republicans own the plurality of it with 226,484 voters (35%). Democrats come in second with 197,361 voters (31%), and non-enrolled third with 176,456 voters (28%). Other (25,023 4%), Conservative (11,633 2%) and Working families (2,9721 <1%) round out the enrolled active voters. Onondaga County is the largest plurality of the district with 48% (3098,109) of the voters. Oneida is the second most populace county with 215 (136,887) of the voters. Oswego (75,179, 12%), Jefferson (62,247%), Herkimer (42,452 6%), and Lewis (17,631 3%) make up the rest of the district.

The 5^th Judicial district is behaving the way New York State has in terms of adding voters. Some growth started with the 2016 election and online voter registration with the DMV.  The largest growth of voters has happened since 2020 thanks to the reforms put in place by the Democratic controlled legislature to make it easier to register to vote and stay registered to vote in New York. Since 206 the 5^th Judicial district has added 45,506 voters which is a growth rate of 7.62%. This nearly mirrors the growth rate of Onondaga County which is the largest county and has an enormous impact on the district.

Here in this heat map of the 5^th Judicial district, we really see how this district becomes so balanced. Onondaga County acts like a blue anchor on the district in the moderate Democrat lean category of 10-14%. Oneida has a slight GOP lean of 5-9% Jefferson is a strong GOP lean in the 15-19% category. Herkimer, Lewis, and Oswego are in the Overwhelming GOP lean category of +20%.

In the county break down we truly see how Onondaga County balances the district and gives Democrats a fighting chance  All four of the small GOP counties we see the signs of GOP dominance with non-enrolled outnumbering the Democrats and overwhelming GOP enrollment advantage (Lewis +36.25% GOP, Herkimer +25.20$+% GOP, Oswego +24.38% GOP, Jefferson +19.62% GOP).  Oneida represents a more typical GOP county with a 9.10% GOP advantage and Democrats in second. Onondaga is a strong blue county with a +10.05% DEM advantage and non-enrolled outnumbering the GOP.

When we look at the partisan trends of the 5^th Judicial district we see a unique trend. Up until 2015 Democrats were closing the gap with the GOP, mostly through the GOP losing voters more than Democrats gaining. However, once Trump entered the political lexicon in 2016, we saw republicans, led by the 5 GOP counties, had a resurgence over the last ten years as Democrats have remained stagnate. Democrats have lost 670 voters over the last ten years as while the GOP has added 12,382 voters. However, the non-enrolled is still the highest grossing by far adding 39,942 voters. When looking at the effect of conservative and WFP voters we really see the closest this district came to ideological balance was 2015 when the right (republicans and Conservatives) had a just a +2.90% In fact 2025 was the highest ideological advantage for the right with +6.11% but it also corresponds to the largest defeat when Democrats won 3 of 4 Supreme Court seats.

We can ee that despite the ideological balance of the district shifting to the right, in federal years Democrats have performed well overcoming their disadvantage. In fact, they have one plurality in all four of our comparative races. In the 2024 Senate race the district performed the best for Democrats at +2.03% advantage. In the other three races they were much closer. The 2024 Presidential Race Democrats a +.62% advantage. The 2022 Senate Democrats had a +.29% advantage. The 2022 Governors’ race Democrats had +.61% advantage. This bodes well for Democrats going into 2026 which has a one Supreme Court seat on the ballot. Delegates will choose candidates during the August conventions.

That is, it is for this week’s edition of the #weeklywonk. Next week I dive into what has been the most popular race in federal elections, New York’s 22^nd congressional district. After multiple close elections, it flipped in 2024 for the first time since 2014. Will Democrats be able to repeat in this district for the first time since 1980? Tune in and find out. As always you can subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election news updates.