Welcome back to #wonkywednesday. Each week I take a deep dive into registration and election data here in Onondaga County. This week I take a final look back at the November 2021 General Election. Over the last few weeks, I have dived into Turnout, Early, Absentee, and Election Day voting. Today I investigated the final question, how Democrats performed in the 2021 General Election. The mood on Election Day was somber as turnout was low and Democrats failed to #flipthelegislature, win take back City Hall, and win the newly created Supreme Court seat. We also saw statewide failures on props to expand Democracy. But as we can see from looking at the data now, Democrats did not do all that badly and increased their elected positions in Onondaga County despite an environment that favored the GOP.

We must though start with what is an eternal challenge to Democrats in Onondaga County, the failure to field candidates in most races. 2021 was a better year for Democrats fielding candidates in all 17 County Legislature races and in more Towns then is typical. The majority of races in Onondaga County were uncontested on the General Election Ballot. Eighty-six races, 52% of the contests, had no opposition whatsoever. Of those eighty-six races, eight were won by candidates on the Democratic line. Four of those were in the City of Syracuse, two in the Town of Dewitt, and two County legislators. An overwhelming sixty-eight were won by candidates on the Republican lines, all of them Town races throughout Onondaga County. The ten other category represents a few cross endorsed candidates appearing on both lines and an assortment of village candidates in East Syracuse, Tully, and Camillus who do not appear on party lines. This imbalance gives the GOP not only an edge in ultimate power in Onondaga County but a vast bench to draw from when positions open on the County Legislature and County offices.

In county wide races Democrats still did well in 2021. The race for Supreme Court by Anthony Brindisi was unsuccessful, but he did win Onondaga County. Brindisi’s 6-point win in Onondaga County continues a stretch of successful judicial, statewide, and county wide candidates. While Brindisi’s win in Onondaga County was overwhelmed by the other 5 Republican counties in the fifth judicial district, it was still a sign of success for Onondaga County Democrats. Since Democrats contested in all seventeen of the Onondaga County legislative districts, we get another glimpse into how Democrats are doing county wide. Democrats improved on their performance from 2019 in vote share, though not in result. In 2019 Democrats garnered 46% of the votes cast for County legislature, in 2021 it was 48%. However, in both years the representation remained 11-6 GOP. The gerrymandered districts created in 2010 work well in low turnout years. While there were two uncontested races on the GOP side, they were in districts packed to contain as many Democrats as possible. GOP opposition there would only have moved the needle a percentage point or two. Likewise, if there was not a general election challenge from a fellow Democrat in district 16 on the working family line some of the other vote would have gone to Democrats. 

In the contested races, where Democrats chose to field candidates, they did much better. As we discussed the Democrats won in Onondaga County in the Supreme Court race, though ultimately losing overall. They also failed to pick up seats in the County Legislature with the split remaining 11-6. In the City of Syracuse, they failed to win Mayor, though it went to Ben Walsh, an independent, and not the GOP. They won all nine contested city races for Common Council, School Board and City Court judge. IN the towns there were forty-eight contested races, and Democrats won twenty-one of them, with twenty-five going to GOP, and two races going to candidates cross endorsed by both parties. There were only four contested village races most notable in Solvay that runs on partisan lines. Republicans won three of the four seats up in Solvay with Democrats only defending one. The East Syracuse Mayor was a non-partisan contested seat, though it is to be noted the winner of both the village of E. Syracuse and Tully mayors are Democrats as well as the village of Skaneateles from earlier in the summer. Though they ran on non-partisan lines it does show an uptick in enrolled Democrats in village offices.

Democrats increased their elected offices held by three positions from before the General Election. They added the Supervisor of Manlius in this cycle. They also flipped 3 Town Justice races in Dewitt, Geddes, and Manlius. There is a caveat to the Geddes race though as that was a Republican running for re-election under the Democratic line after losing the Republican line. Democrats lost big in the village of Solvay with losing two village board seats losing control of Solvay. Democrats stayed even on Town Boards though there were some changes. The GOP flipped seats in Salina, Marcellus, Cicero, and Spafford. Democrats flipped seats in Geddes, Lysander, Manlius, & Pompey.

Bottom line is even in a bad year the demographics of Onondaga County helped Democrats running for office when they decided to run. Gerrymandered maps and concentration of Democrats inside the City of Syracuse continues to hinder Democrats progress on the county leg. However, County wide Democrats have done well and that can only get better as the Demographics continue to shift. This is my final look back at the 2021 Election results. Next week I will start to look at the metrics on how we rate performance of the Board of Election in terms of work product and fiscal performance. Then once we have new state maps, we will do a deep dive into the new districts. Stay tuned.

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Welcome back to #wonkywednesday!  Each week I dive into the stats and registration and election data that makes up the electoral landscape of Onondaga County.  I continue to look back at the November General Election as we await new registration and redistricting data that will come in February.  This week in will look at the polarization of voting methods that have happened over the last 3 years. 

Up until 2019 New York was largely an in-person voting state on Election Day.  New York did not have early voting and a rather strict excused based system for absentee.  This meant that well over 90% of the vote for any election was on Election Day.  Absentee voting though showed signs in the last few years of increasing.  In 2016 and 2018, two very high turnout years, we saw a decent increase of absentee voting.  As New Yorkers saw other states’ voters able to cast ballots early many New Yorkers chose to vote by absentee claiming permanent and temporary illness. 

This all changed in 2019 when Early Voting was adopted by the New York state legislature.  For the 2019 General Election was the first time voters in New York could choose to vote on a day other than Election Day.  We saw an immediate polarization in 2019 when it came to this reform.  In Onondaga County Democrats accounted for the overwhelming plurality of Early Votes.  Republicans remained skeptical of this reform and stayed largely in person.  This polarization got worse in 2020 and 2021 as Democrats made up even larger shares of the growing Early Vote contingent.  Absentees remained pretty evenly used in 2019 however that changed in 2020 when the COVID-91 pandemic made the use of mail in ballots easier than ever.  National rhetoric led to under usage of absentee ballots by the GOP both in 2020 and 2021 from what was generally equally used method of voting prior to 2020.

Democrats have been the biggest adopter of Early Voting and increased uses of absentees.  Their increase in percentages and raw numbers for early voting from 2019 to 2021 elections, both local years, has decreased their influence on Election Day.  2020 is an abnormal year with nearly 605 of Democrats choosing to vote in options other than Election Day.  With COVID raging and no vaccine it remains to be seen whether 2020 is just an anomaly or something we may see more of in higher turnout elections. 

It may surprise some to see the GOP also grew its share and raw numbers of Early Voting and absentees from 2019 to 2021.  Their vote share for Election Day dripped 2% points as some voters are starting to resist the national rhetoric.  However they still largely outnumber Democrats in desire to vote on Election Day.  Over 61% of their voters in the presidential year and over 87% in 2021 chose Election Day as their method.  This compares to 40.55% for Democrats in 2020 and 78.55% in 2021.

Non enrolled voters not surprisingly land in the middle of the two parties.  The fluctuations in turnout with non-enrolled voters seem to affect their voting method choice which is not all that surprising.  Though not enrolled in a party most studies show non-enrolled still have ideological leans.  The N/E aligned with Democrats may be adopting their voting method preferences where the ne/s aligned with GOP.  The n/e voting method breakdowns tend to reflect the overall breakdowns more than either party. 

The increased usage of alternative voting methods as well as the increasing polarization of the political party’s feelings towards those methods have created whiplash when reporting results.  This phenomenon is what I call the Blue Blip-Red Mirage-Blue shift.  Early Voting dominated by Democratic voters were always the first results reported at 9pm on Election Night.  This would give Democrats in virtually every race a blip of hope as an initial lead would show up on Election Night.  As results would trickle in from the various Election Day polling places the more GOP friendly Election Day electorate would overcome those leads.  In 2020 this shift was so dramatic because the GOP had a significant advantage on Election Day.  It even led to Syracuse.com jumping the gun calling CNY a Blue Mirage.  Absentee ballots though in 2020 and 2021 were heavily polarized and led to many come from behind victories for Democratic candidates weeks after Election Day when those ballots were counted.

This may now be a thing in the past or at least drastically changed.  In 2022 for the first time Absentee ballot totals will be part of the Election night counts.  This means as reporting starts Early Voting and Absentee totals will start to appear.  So the Blue Blip at the beginning of the night may be larger than before.  Election Night results will come in as the night goes on and when voters go to bed we should have reporting of well over 95% of the ballots cast.  This will likely allow more races to be called on Election Night and give confidence to voters to choose whatever voting method they want.  We will still have affidavit and absentee ballots received in the 48 hour period before Election Day to count after the election but that universe will be small and not as polarized meaning only the closest of races can flip.

That is it for this week.  Next week I will continue looking back at the November election.  I will look at who won the individual races in Onondaga County and whether Democrats or Republicans gained significantly in the local electoral landscape.

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