Welcome back to #wonkywednesday.  Each week I do a deep dive into election and registration data in Onondaga County.  Since my time at the Onondaga County Board of Elections I have used statistics not just to analyze voting patterns but how the office has performed as well.  Every now and then those statistics can translate into an interesting topic for the public.  This week I investigate the number of Voter Registration forms processed by the Onondaga County Board of Elections in 2021.

In 2021 the Onondaga County Board of Elections processed an astounding 94,215 registration forms.  We currently track 5 different forms of voting sources.  The largest registration source is the DMV which submitted 60,557 forms to OCBOE either by mail or online via their MYDMV system.  We received another 27,500 forms by mail directly from voters or registration groups.  3,235 forms came over the counter directly handed in to the OCBOE offices during working hours.  1462 voters registered by using affidavit ballots during Early and Election Day voting.  Finally 1461 forms came to us through forms filled out at other Government agencies.

The work at the Onondaga County Board of Elections has dramatically increased since 2016.  Before online registration at the BOE in 2016 registration work was a pretty consistent number of forms per year.  Of course this is why New York for the longest time had one of the lowest registration rates in the country; we made it hard to actually register to vote.  Since 2016 we made it substantially easier in New York to register with online DMV registration and universal transfers when voters move from county to county.  This has resulted in a 500% increase in forms needed to be processed by the Board of Elections.  Whether they are simple address changes, party registration changes, or newly registered voters, the Onondaga County Board of Elections must process them before Election Day each year. 

The lion share of the growth in registration forms lies with the Department of Motor Vehicle submissions.  We have no data before 2013 as DMV forms were delivered by mail and the OCBOE combined them into mail registrations.  In 2013 we started to break out the different categories and we see a steady stream of forms delivered by the DMV.  However in 2016 this changed overnight with Governor Cuomo ordering that electronic changes to driver’s licenses on Mydmv also have the option to update that voter registration role.  Instantly overnight this option became not only the most popular source for registrations, the number of voters updating their voter registration exploded.  No longer were voters waiting till before an election to register, they updated their address as they moved as well as party preferences.  In 2021 the 60,557 forms delivered by DMV nearly tripled the total voter registration forms received from all sources combined in 2015.

The second most common form of voter registration comes through the US mail.  Before 2013 the Onondaga County Board of Election categorized everything that came in the mail as mail source.  This included forms from other government agencies and the Department of Motor Vehicles.  In 2013 we broke out those categories and that accounted for the substantial drop in voter registrations by mail.  In 2018 we saw a large increase in voter registrations from all sources, including mail.  That started to recede in 2019 as voters opted for the online DMV.  However in 2020 and 2021 with the rise of the COVID pandemic more voters choose to avoid crowds and in-person registration events.  This led to a large increase in voters using mailing options to stay home but also change parties and registrations.

Two of the more stable sources of registration have been forms from other government agencies and Registration forms received over the counter at the Board of Elections office.  However we can see both of those sources affected by COVID-19.  With in-person interactions prohibited for much of 2020 OCBOE posted its lowest totals for over the counter registrations in a Presidential year in 2020 and nearly an all-time low in 2021.  Traditional voter registration drives were also not turning in these forms in person, opting for mail in options instead.  We saw similar decreases in agency forms as non-essential government offices were closed and many went to online or telephone only interaction.  This limited the number of forms collected by them and returned to us.

Finally we can see the impact of the drastic uptick in DMV voter registrations in this graph.  Secondarily the increase in recent mail registrations have also added to the burden.  As these two sources grow so does the workload of our office.  This made it a bare necessity to add two data entry clerks this year.  With online and automatic voter registration on the horizon we could see an ever increasing amount of voter registrations in the future.  The big question will be in the future, will this actually reduce the amount of unregistered population eighteen and above?  That may be a subject of a future #wonkywednesday!

Welcome back to #wonkywednesday. Each week I take a deep dive into registration and election data here in Onondaga County. This week I take a final look back at the November 2021 General Election. Over the last few weeks, I have dived into Turnout, Early, Absentee, and Election Day voting. Today I investigated the final question, how Democrats performed in the 2021 General Election. The mood on Election Day was somber as turnout was low and Democrats failed to #flipthelegislature, win take back City Hall, and win the newly created Supreme Court seat. We also saw statewide failures on props to expand Democracy. But as we can see from looking at the data now, Democrats did not do all that badly and increased their elected positions in Onondaga County despite an environment that favored the GOP.

We must though start with what is an eternal challenge to Democrats in Onondaga County, the failure to field candidates in most races. 2021 was a better year for Democrats fielding candidates in all 17 County Legislature races and in more Towns then is typical. The majority of races in Onondaga County were uncontested on the General Election Ballot. Eighty-six races, 52% of the contests, had no opposition whatsoever. Of those eighty-six races, eight were won by candidates on the Democratic line. Four of those were in the City of Syracuse, two in the Town of Dewitt, and two County legislators. An overwhelming sixty-eight were won by candidates on the Republican lines, all of them Town races throughout Onondaga County. The ten other category represents a few cross endorsed candidates appearing on both lines and an assortment of village candidates in East Syracuse, Tully, and Camillus who do not appear on party lines. This imbalance gives the GOP not only an edge in ultimate power in Onondaga County but a vast bench to draw from when positions open on the County Legislature and County offices.

In county wide races Democrats still did well in 2021. The race for Supreme Court by Anthony Brindisi was unsuccessful, but he did win Onondaga County. Brindisi’s 6-point win in Onondaga County continues a stretch of successful judicial, statewide, and county wide candidates. While Brindisi’s win in Onondaga County was overwhelmed by the other 5 Republican counties in the fifth judicial district, it was still a sign of success for Onondaga County Democrats. Since Democrats contested in all seventeen of the Onondaga County legislative districts, we get another glimpse into how Democrats are doing county wide. Democrats improved on their performance from 2019 in vote share, though not in result. In 2019 Democrats garnered 46% of the votes cast for County legislature, in 2021 it was 48%. However, in both years the representation remained 11-6 GOP. The gerrymandered districts created in 2010 work well in low turnout years. While there were two uncontested races on the GOP side, they were in districts packed to contain as many Democrats as possible. GOP opposition there would only have moved the needle a percentage point or two. Likewise, if there was not a general election challenge from a fellow Democrat in district 16 on the working family line some of the other vote would have gone to Democrats. 

In the contested races, where Democrats chose to field candidates, they did much better. As we discussed the Democrats won in Onondaga County in the Supreme Court race, though ultimately losing overall. They also failed to pick up seats in the County Legislature with the split remaining 11-6. In the City of Syracuse, they failed to win Mayor, though it went to Ben Walsh, an independent, and not the GOP. They won all nine contested city races for Common Council, School Board and City Court judge. IN the towns there were forty-eight contested races, and Democrats won twenty-one of them, with twenty-five going to GOP, and two races going to candidates cross endorsed by both parties. There were only four contested village races most notable in Solvay that runs on partisan lines. Republicans won three of the four seats up in Solvay with Democrats only defending one. The East Syracuse Mayor was a non-partisan contested seat, though it is to be noted the winner of both the village of E. Syracuse and Tully mayors are Democrats as well as the village of Skaneateles from earlier in the summer. Though they ran on non-partisan lines it does show an uptick in enrolled Democrats in village offices.

Democrats increased their elected offices held by three positions from before the General Election. They added the Supervisor of Manlius in this cycle. They also flipped 3 Town Justice races in Dewitt, Geddes, and Manlius. There is a caveat to the Geddes race though as that was a Republican running for re-election under the Democratic line after losing the Republican line. Democrats lost big in the village of Solvay with losing two village board seats losing control of Solvay. Democrats stayed even on Town Boards though there were some changes. The GOP flipped seats in Salina, Marcellus, Cicero, and Spafford. Democrats flipped seats in Geddes, Lysander, Manlius, & Pompey.

Bottom line is even in a bad year the demographics of Onondaga County helped Democrats running for office when they decided to run. Gerrymandered maps and concentration of Democrats inside the City of Syracuse continues to hinder Democrats progress on the county leg. However, County wide Democrats have done well and that can only get better as the Demographics continue to shift. This is my final look back at the 2021 Election results. Next week I will start to look at the metrics on how we rate performance of the Board of Election in terms of work product and fiscal performance. Then once we have new state maps, we will do a deep dive into the new districts. Stay tuned.

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