Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly article I publish on dustinczarny.com. In this series we follow the electoral and registration data that make up Onondaga County and New York State. I am in the middle of a 6-part series on Towns in Onondaga County that nominate Democratic candidates by designating petitions, starting in late February. Part 2 ins this week and I am investigating the Town of Manlius. This eastern town is one of the most important towns for Democratic lawmakers in the county, seen as a lynchpin for Democrats running for public office both counties wide and regionally.

On February 1, 2026, The Town of Manlius had 25,614 voters, the third largest town in Onondaga County. We can see right from the start why Manlius has its reputation as an anchor town for Democratic candidates. Democrats have a strong plurality with 9,135 voters (35=6%). The non-enrolled is second with 8,014 voters (31%). The GOP comes in third in this town with 7,044 voters (27%). 958 Voters in other parties (4%, 402 Conservatives (2%), and 61 Working Families (<1%). The 8.16% Democratic advantage is near to the Onondaga County average of +10.03%) The Town of Manlius is so large It has a whole county legislature district inside of it (OCL 10 21,219 voters 83%). OCL 12 is in the southwestern area of Manlius, including the village. This area comprises 4,395 voters, accounting for 12% of the total.

The Town of Manlius is the poster child for the transformation that Onondaga County has undergone since 2016 that I have been chronicling this year in my #weeklywonk columns. This includes the growth of active registered voters. In November of 2016 Manlius had 23,567 registered voters. On February 1, 2026, it had 25,614 voters. That is a growth of 2,047 voters since 2016. The growth of 8.69% is near what we saw in Onondaga County during that time (14.18%). The registration advances over the last few years are keeping more people registered and making it easier to register to vote and that is also contributing to the growth.

Looking at the heat map of individual Eds we really see why Manlius has become so blue. Only four eds (ED 1,9,10, 15) have slight GOP leans (+5-9% GOP). They are in the Northeast corner of the Town and represent the more rural parts of the Town. ED 32 has a borderline GOP lean (+0-4% GOP). The rest of the Eds have a statistical advantage for Democrats. ED 2, 19, 24, 30 have a borderline Democratic lean (+0-4% DEM). Eds 3, 11, 12, 16, 18, 22, 26, 27, & 29 have slight Democratic leans (+5-9% DEM). Eds 4, 8, 13, 14, 20, 25, 28, 31, & 32 have moderate Democratic leans (+10-14% DEM). Eds 6, 7, 17, 21, 23 have strong Democratic leans (+15-19% DEM). And one ED 5 in Fayetteville is one of the more concentrated Democratic areas outside the city with the highest classification of Overwhelming Democratic Lean (+20% or more DEM).

We will go more in depth into the County Legislative districts later this year however this chart gives us insight into the 2023 Republican gerrymander and how it affected Manlius. OCL 10 used to cover the southern part of Manlius, but its boundaries shifted north to regions that better support the GOP, aiming to safeguard what had been one of the county’s more competitive seats. While this seat is still lean Democrat with a +7.24% lean and non-enrolled outnumber the GOP, it is less than the southern portion of the seat expelled into OCL 12. In 2023, 12.63% of Manlius village and its outskirts that shifted to rural district twelve managed to help the GOP keep OCL 10, but this effort was unsuccessful in 2025. Now it could play a big part in flipping OCL 12 this year.

Here in this chart, we see how Manlius has flipped from a bright red GOP dominant town to the shining blue eastern suburb we know today. While there was a steady erosion of the GOP dominance, in 2016 it truly supercharged. Since 2016 Democrats gained the most with +1581 voters, followed closely by the non-enrolled +1517 voters. The GOP lost tremendous ground and had -692 voters during this time. Even in the bottom chart where we add in conservatives to the GOP the Democrats went from a -7.36% in 2009 to a +6.83% today. This is why we saw Democrats Flip the Town board in 2019, win the Supervisor seat (and hold it since) in 2021 and have an all-Democratic town board. This along with the OCL 10 flip in 202 and all contested elected offices in Manlius became Democratic since the 2016 election.

Manlius is an older town in Onondaga County despite its Democratic tendencies. The average voter is 52.61 years old, one of the oldest in the county. 71+ is the highest age group at a 21% plurality. As we have seen in our examination of age, Democrats tend to do better in the three age groups under fifty. However, in the three age groups over 50, the best for them is the oldest age group of 71+ We see that in Manlius as well, with Democrats dominating 141-50 (Dem +15.90) and 31-40 (DEM 18.46%). While they also have an advantage in 18-30 (DEM +14.20%), the non-enrolled outnumbers both Democrats and GOP there. The GOP’s strongest age group is 51-60, where they hold a +0.85% advantage. Among individuals aged 61 to 70, Democrats hold a narrow advantage of just 0.14%. However, in the 71+ age group, Democrats are ahead by +3.39%.

Finally, we look at the comparative races in Manlius. The seven comparative races I am using this year is Congress in 2024 & 2022, President in 2024, Governor in 2022, County Clerk in 2023, and the 2021 Supreme Court. In addition, we had a Town Supervisor one on one competitive race from 2025, Town Supervisor, that we can look at. In odd years Manlius tends to have a +5-7% edge, Gubernatorial years +15-20%, and Presidential years +25%/ Taking the seven comparative races and averaging it Manlius has a +16.55% average. This is nearly double the Onondaga County rate of +8.73%. Manlius used to be the bell weather for the county, but no more. It is solidly to the left of Onondaga County in both odd and even year races.

That is, it for this edition of the #weeklywonk. Next week I will continue my series on towns that nominate Democratic candidates by petition. I will focus on the southwestern town of Marcellus that on its face seems like a GOP town but has exhibited strong Democratic tendencies of late. In fact, a town council race this year will determine the partisan makeup of the town board. As always you can subscribe to get email notifications of all content and election news updates.

Welcome back to the #weeklywonk. This is my weekly article on electoral and registration data that I host on dustinczarny.com. This series is meant as an informational article for voters and candidates wanting to learn more about our home Onondaga county and the State of New York. Today I start my 6-part series focusing on the towns that will be filling potential Democratic candidates by designating petitions. Today we focus on the Town of Elbridge, a deep red town that I have not explored in this series since 2021. The town of Elbridge will have a single Town Justice seat up in 2025.

The Town of Elbridge is one of the smaller rural towns in the western part of Onondaga County. The Republicans have a solid plurality in this town at 1,535 voters (39%). The non-enrolled are second with 1,130 voters (29%). The Democrats are a distant third at 924 voters (24%), There are 168 voters (4%) enrolled in various other parties, 120 (3%) in the Conservative party, and 21 (1%) working family’s voters. There are five election districts in Elbridge, all equal in number of registered voters. Two election districts represent the two villages in Elbridge, the village of Jordan (ED 2) and the village of Elbridge (ED 5).

The voter population in the Town of Elbridge has experienced an increase. Like the county overall, the growth is substantial after the Democratic takeover of New York State government in 2018. Online Voter registration, DMV online registration, a statewide voter registration database, and 10-day constitutional minimum have combined to allow more people to get on and stay on the voter rolls. Thise year I am going back to the 12016 election which is a sea change in modern elections and ten years ago for comparisons. During this time Elbridge added 327 voters, a growth of 9.16%.

Looking at the heat map of the five election districts in the Town of Elbridge we see that all of them are well into the GOP range of the map. The Village of Jordan (ED 2) leans GOP (GOP +5-9%). The Village of Elbridge (ED 5) is a moderate GOP lean (10-14%). The southern eds one & four are strong GOP leans (+15-19%). Finally, ED 4 in the north is an overwhelming GOP lean (+20% or more).

Diving into the ED themselves we see a bleak prospect for Democrats. Only the villages (Ed 2 Jordan and ED 5 Elbridge) are Democrats in second place outnumbering the non-enrolled, barely. All three other EDs fall into third place. A political party faces a significant disadvantage within a political subdivision when non-enrolled individuals outnumber its members. This highlights the Democrats only real hope of winning in Elbridge is to have heavy turnout in the villages as well as a large advantage in the non-enrolled population everywhere.

In these two charts we see the partisan trends in the Town of Elbridge. The top chart compares the three main modes of Registration: Democrats, Republicans, and Non-enrolled. As we can see the GOP has been leading consistently since 2009, and well before). Since 2016 things have gotten worse for the Democrats as they only gained forty-two voters while the GOP has gained 120 voters. However, the non-enrolled grew by more than both parties combined adding 216 voters. In the bottom chart we look at the impact of the conservative and working families’ parties and how it skews the electorate, to the right mostly. The lower the percentage the better for the right leaning ideologies (GOP and Conservative). Elbridge at -18.21% is at its lowest since 2010.

In 2026 my #weeklywonks are going to examine the effect of age on the political subdivisions we cover. The town of Elbridge is one of the oldest towns in Onondaga County. Forty-one percent of the voting population is over 60 years old. The average age of the voter in Elbridge is 53.22 years old. Compared with the average Onondaga County voting age of 50.87 years old, Elbridge is significantly older than the rest of the county. The age group ranges are also more GOP than anything else. Though in the youngest range the non-enrolled outnumber both parties, there is not a real statistical difference in the under fifty age ranges. As we get over 50 the GOP really dominate the 51-60 and 71+ groups, though less so the 61-70 group which is different than the pattern we have seen as the oldest and youngest groups being the best for Democrats.

Finally, Elbridge acts in the way you suspect it might give the rightward lean of its registration in our comparative races. For the Town races we are going to look at 6 different comparative races. We can see on average in an even year Elbridge acts a little differently than in odd years, but still a major GOP stronghold. The worst race to run in Elbridge was the 2023 County Clerk race, almost 40% worse than the county average. The best Democrat to run in Elbridge was Congressman John Mannion who typically outperforms the other five comparative races. He still lost Elbridge by 17.74%. Elbridge is likely to have 35-40% more support for the GOP compared to other areas of the county.

That is, it is for this week’s edition of the #weeklywonk. Next week I continue to look at the Towns filling Democratic offices by petitions, holding elections in an even year for the first time. Part of this 6-part series will be the Democratic stronghold of Manlius. Coming soon will be Marcellus, Onondaga, Salina, & Spafford will be coming soon (skipping Lysander for 2026 as they have no offices up.). As always you can subscribe to dustinczarny.com for all content and election updates.